Mar 19, 2025 12:10
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced today that Bitcoins bull cycle is over and warned investors to brace for 612 months of bearish or sideways price action. This development comes after the on-chain analytics veteran had previously urged caution but maintained a measured outlook on the market as recently as two weeks ago. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? In a post shared today via X, Ki stated:Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 612 months of bearish or sideways price action. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $10 Million? Experts Predict Explosive Growth By 2035 Along with the comment, the CEO highlighted the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signalsan index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, to pinpoint market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points in Bitcoins price. According to Ki, this indicator has historically offered reliable buy and sell signals. He further explained how an automated alert, previously sent to his subscribers, combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. Once the trend in this 1-year moving average changes, it often signals a significant market inflection point. As proof, Ki also shared a chart: This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes. Ki pointed to drying liquidity and fresh selling pressure by new whales who, he said, are unloading Bitcoin at lower prices. Notably, he revealed that CryptoQuant users who subscribed to his alerts received this signal before todays public announcement. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. Cryptoquant users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume theyve already adjusted their positions, so Im posting this now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Shorts $445 Million In BTCTraders Plot Explosive Liquidation This latest declaration contrasts remarks from just four days ago, on March 14, when Ki struck a more cautious tone, stating: Bitcoin demand seems stuck, but its too early to call it a bear market. At that time, he shared a chart of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum) indicator, which had turned slightly negativean early signal that demand might be tapering off. Although Ki pointed out that demand could still rebound (as it has in past sideways phases), he acknowledged the possibility of Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a bear market. The pivot in sentiment is especially notable given Kis stance from two weeks ago. In that earlier post, he opined that the bull cycle is still intact, crediting strong fundamentals and growing mining capacity: Theres no significant on-chain activity, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting the bull cycle is still intact. Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online. However, he also cautioned that the market could turn if sentiment did not improve, particularly in the United States. With todays announcement, the warning has evidently crystallized. Reflecting on the potential downside scenario, Ki said at the time: If the cycle ends here, its an outcome no one wantednot old whales, mining companies, TradFi, or even Trump. (FYI, the market doesnt care about retail.) At press time, BTC traded at $83,059. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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