Apr 10, 2025 12:05
Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle, Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. Im not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, he clarified, but Im saying that the probability of it being a top has increased from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a thirdyou know, a 33% chance. Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the models Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoins price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. In the third year of a bull market, you dont want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February and then to be taken out. It doesnt happen often. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. We are now 29 months into the cycle, he said, so its deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously. Although the analyst remains bullish long-termhighlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoptionhe warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. Theres a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy, Loukas noted. We havent seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades that could potentially become a full-blown global recession. In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas view, unrealistic. With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and othersthe institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoinleads me to believe that a full decoupling is probably unrealistic. The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 levela roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough where I would want to redeploy some risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. A big move up and then a subsequent move down is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin. Still, Loukas hasnt ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical super right-translated cycle, in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 windowperhaps around month 41 or 42followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. Id much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, Well, Bitcoins back down to $48K or lower. Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes. At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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