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CATEGORY: bitcoin bear marke


Jul 12, 2024 12:05

Bitcoin Crash Forced Weak Hands Into Largest Loss-Taking Since 2022 Lows: Report

A new report from Glassnode has revealed that the Bitcoin short-term holders took part in the largest loss-taking event since 2022 in the recent crash. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Realized Huge Losses Recently According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, less than 1% of trading days in the cryptocurrency’s history have seen the short-term holders taking higher losses than during the latest event. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort makes up one of the two main market divisions based on holding time, with the other group being called the “long-term holders” (LTHs). Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs reflect the stubborn side of the market, which can weather through crashes and rallies, while the STHs include the weak hands that easily react to FUD or FOMO. Related Reading: Chainlink Traders Capitulate After 10% Plunge: Bottom Here? Given this fact, it’s not unexpected that this latter cohort has again shown a strong reaction to the recent volatility in the Bitcoin price. And since it’s been a crash, the STHs have been panic selling at a loss. The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss specifically for the STHs over the past few years: The Realized Loss here is an indicator that keeps track of the total loss the STHs realize through their selling. Also, note that the metric is “entity-adjusted,” meaning that the metric includes the data for entities instead of addresses. An entity refers to a cluster of addresses that Glassnode has determined to belong to the same investor through its analysis. Transactions made between the wallets of the same investor would naturally not correspond to any real “loss-taking,” so excluding them from the data makes sense. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Loss registered a spike during the latest market downturn, implying that these investors made large transactions at a loss. At the height of this capitulation event, the indicator’s value hit $595 million, the largest loss-taking the cohort has shown since the FTX collapse that led to the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Now Forming Pattern That Last Led To It Blasting Off “Furthermore, only 52 out of 5655 trading days (< 1%) have recorded a larger daily loss value, highlighting the severity of this correction in dollar terms,” reads the report. From the chart, it would appear that large spikes in the metric have come around at least local bottoms in the price, so this loss-taking event may have also formed another bottom for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $58,800, up 3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Newbies Are Panic Selling At A Loss After Price Crunch: Glassnode

Author: Andrew Throuvalas
Bulgaria
May 02, 2024 01:00

Bitcoin Newbies Are Panic Selling At A Loss After Price Crunch: Glassnode

Bitcoins price just lost a major on-chain support level, though history suggests the asset was due for a correction.

Apr 10, 2025 12:05

Crypto Analyst: 33% Chance Bitcoin Already ToppedBrace For $52,000

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle, Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. Im not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, he clarified, but Im saying that the probability of it being a top has increased from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a thirdyou know, a 33% chance. Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the models Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoins price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. In the third year of a bull market, you dont want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February and then to be taken out. It doesnt happen often. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. We are now 29 months into the cycle, he said, so its deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously. Although the analyst remains bullish long-termhighlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoptionhe warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. Theres a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy, Loukas noted. We havent seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades that could potentially become a full-blown global recession. In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas view, unrealistic. With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and othersthe institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoinleads me to believe that a full decoupling is probably unrealistic. The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 levela roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough where I would want to redeploy some risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. A big move up and then a subsequent move down is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin. Still, Loukas hasnt ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical super right-translated cycle, in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 windowperhaps around month 41 or 42followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. Id much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, Well, Bitcoins back down to $48K or lower. Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes. At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Apr 07, 2025 01:05

Crypto Investors React to Trumps Tariffs Announcement: Heres What Happened

Hours before the announcement, investors rushed to move their assets to exchanges in preparation for sales due to economic uncertainty.

Apr 26, 2024 01:00

Heres a List of Bitcoin (BTC) Price Pullbacks Since the Bear Market Bottom

Rekt Capital said the closer BTC gets to a 20% fall, the better the bargain-buying opportunity.

8 Charlie Munger Quotes for Investors Through This Bitcoin Price Retreat

Author: W. E. Messamore
Bulgaria
Apr 13, 2025 01:00

8 Charlie Munger Quotes for Investors Through This Bitcoin Price Retreat

The late Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger's name still comes up in financial media after he passed away in Nov. 2023. His timeless wisdom applies to this Bitcoin bear market.

Apr 02, 2025 01:00

Key Metrics That Signal a Crypto Market Bottom, According to Santiment

Monitoring social trends, whale accumulation, social dominance for FUD or FOMO, and the Mean Dollar Invested Age can help traders identify market bottoms.

Mar 19, 2025 12:10

Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over: CryptoQuant CEO Sounds The Alarm

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced today that Bitcoins bull cycle is over and warned investors to brace for 612 months of bearish or sideways price action. This development comes after the on-chain analytics veteran had previously urged caution but maintained a measured outlook on the market as recently as two weeks ago. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? In a post shared today via X, Ki stated:Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 612 months of bearish or sideways price action. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $10 Million? Experts Predict Explosive Growth By 2035 Along with the comment, the CEO highlighted the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signalsan index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, to pinpoint market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points in Bitcoins price. According to Ki, this indicator has historically offered reliable buy and sell signals. He further explained how an automated alert, previously sent to his subscribers, combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. Once the trend in this 1-year moving average changes, it often signals a significant market inflection point. As proof, Ki also shared a chart: This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes. Ki pointed to drying liquidity and fresh selling pressure by new whales who, he said, are unloading Bitcoin at lower prices. Notably, he revealed that CryptoQuant users who subscribed to his alerts received this signal before todays public announcement. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. Cryptoquant users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume theyve already adjusted their positions, so Im posting this now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Shorts $445 Million In BTCTraders Plot Explosive Liquidation This latest declaration contrasts remarks from just four days ago, on March 14, when Ki struck a more cautious tone, stating: Bitcoin demand seems stuck, but its too early to call it a bear market. At that time, he shared a chart of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum) indicator, which had turned slightly negativean early signal that demand might be tapering off. Although Ki pointed out that demand could still rebound (as it has in past sideways phases), he acknowledged the possibility of Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a bear market. The pivot in sentiment is especially notable given Kis stance from two weeks ago. In that earlier post, he opined that the bull cycle is still intact, crediting strong fundamentals and growing mining capacity: Theres no significant on-chain activity, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting the bull cycle is still intact. Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online. However, he also cautioned that the market could turn if sentiment did not improve, particularly in the United States. With todays announcement, the warning has evidently crystallized. Reflecting on the potential downside scenario, Ki said at the time: If the cycle ends here, its an outcome no one wantednot old whales, mining companies, TradFi, or even Trump. (FYI, the market doesnt care about retail.) At press time, BTC traded at $83,059. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Mar 17, 2025 01:05

These Indicators Suggest Bitcoin May Be at the Start of a Bear Market: CryptoQuant

Bitcoins valuation metrics suggest the asset is at deep value levels or in a deeper correction phase than typically seen during bull seasons.

Crypto Winter Is Over, Says New York Investment Bank H.C. Wainwright

Author: Jordan Lyanchev
Bulgaria
Apr 27, 2023 05:40

Crypto Winter Is Over, Says New York Investment Bank H.C. Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright analysts believe the worst has passed, and investments in the world of cryptocurrency are once again on the table.

Crypto Bull Run May Have Already Started, One River CEO Says

Author: Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Bulgaria
Mar 08, 2023 01:00

Crypto Bull Run May Have Already Started, One River CEO Says

Eric Peters is "extremely bullish" on crypto for the medium to long term, suggesting institutions will dive in during the bull cycle.

Despite Crypto Bear Market, Revolut’s Revenue Climbed by 33% in 2022 (Report)

Author: Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Bulgaria
Mar 04, 2023 05:40

Despite Crypto Bear Market, Revolut’s Revenue Climbed by 33% in 2022 (Report)

While most companies struggled last year, Revolut's revenue in 2022 reached $1.03 billion.

Crypto Giant DCG Revealed a Loss of Over $1 Billion in 2022 (Report)

Author: Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Bulgaria
Mar 01, 2023 09:20

Crypto Giant DCG Revealed a Loss of Over $1 Billion in 2022 (Report)

DCG reported a financial loss of $1.1 billion in 2022 due to the crypto market crash and Genesis' bankruptcy.

Crypto Layoffs Keep Piling up: Messari Dismisses 15% of its Headcount

Author: Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Bulgaria
Feb 24, 2023 01:00

Crypto Layoffs Keep Piling up: Messari Dismisses 15% of its Headcount

The "market headwinds" in the cryptocurrency sector prompted Messari to lay off 15% of its team.

Feb 16, 2023 01:00

DBS Records 80% Increase in Bitcoin Trading Despite Bear Market: Report

The Singapore bank said it saw significant growth in BTC and ETH trading volumes despite the crypto winter.

Feb 13, 2023 01:00

CME Group Records Increased Demand for Crypto Products Despite Bear Market

The firm has seen significant demand for its crypto products since November despite the bear market, according to the CEO.

Tron Generated $48 Million in Revenue in Q4, 2022: Research

Author: Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Bulgaria
Feb 12, 2023 01:00

Tron Generated $48 Million in Revenue in Q4, 2022: Research

Messari revealed that Tron's financial results in Q4 outperformed those from Q3, while user transactions were also on the rise.

Feb 10, 2023 01:00

Investors Are Interested in Crypto Despite Bear Market: BNY Mellon Exec

The bank's executive believes cryptocurrencies are here to stay despite the crash.

Despite Bear Market, 82% of Millionaires Sought Crypto Advice in 2022 (Survey)

Author: Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Bulgaria
Feb 06, 2023 01:00

Despite Bear Market, 82% of Millionaires Sought Crypto Advice in 2022 (Survey)

Around eight in ten high net worth customers of deVere Group showed interest in cryptocurrencies over the last year.

Chainalysis to Dismiss 48 Employees, Prepares to Reorganize Structure

Author: Jordan Lyanchev
Bulgaria
Feb 03, 2023 09:20

Chainalysis to Dismiss 48 Employees, Prepares to Reorganize Structure

The layoff, which mostly targeted non-core personnel, is due to a decline in private sector demand.

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