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Author: Jake Simmons

Research Firm Predicts Bullish Bitcoin Breakout For Q4: 4 Key Reasons

Matrixport, a digital asset financial services group born from Bitmain, an industry leader in Bitcoin mining, projects a bullish breakout for Bitcoin in the upcoming fourth quarter of 2024. In their latest research report titled “Matrix on Target: Bullish Prospects for Bitcoin in Q4, the firm provides four reasons to be bullish in the upcoming weeks. #1 Narrowing Trading Range Signals Breakout Matrixport’s analysis begins with a technical assessment of the recent Bitcoin price action. Historically, Q3 has posed significant challenges with frequent breakout failures. This year, however, Bitcoin has demonstrated a notably narrowing trading range, a pattern typically preceding significant price volatility. The constriction of price movement is often a precursor to dynamic price shifts, suggesting an impending breakout, the report notes. #2 Monetary Policy As A Bitcoin Catalyst A pivotal aspect of the report focuses on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. Currently, the Fed maintains a rate of 5.25%, in contrast to a 3.0% inflation rate. Related Reading: Would Bitcoin Fall Below $60,000 Again? Analyst Reveals A Concerning Trend For BTC However, recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have ignited speculations of a possible rate cut with the September FOMC meeting. “If inflation follows the projected path, an interest rate cut in the September meeting is possible,” Powell indicated. Matrixports analysis correlates these potential rate cuts with increased market liquidity, which historically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. Each quarter-point reduction by the Fed could inject substantial liquidity into the market, enhancing the appeal of non-traditional assets, the report elaborates. #3 Impact Of The US Presidential Election The upcoming US Presidential election also features prominently in Matrixports forecast. The firm speculates on the impact of a potential re-election of Donald Trump, noting his previous administration’s relatively hands-off approach to crypto regulation. A re-election of Trump could renew vigor in regulatory reform or laxity, providing a less uncertain landscape for crypto innovations, the report suggests. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO On Bitcoin: Were Not Bullish Enough Heres Why Trumps recent appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin conference, although not meeting some expectations, was perceived largely positively, signaling potential supportive stances on cryptocurrency if re-elected. Trump promised to sell the Bitcoin previously confiscated by the US government and establish a national stockpile of Bitcoin. As reported by NewsBTC, this action, if it comes to fruition, could have substantial implications for the game theory of BTC. It could spark a race for a quick allocation, with nations printing money to buy as much Bitcoin as possible. #4 Seasonal Patterns Of Bitcoin The report also delves into the seasonal patterns affecting Bitcoins performance, highlighting the typically sluggish months of August and September. This pattern is attributed to lower trading volumes during the summer vacation period and market caution in anticipation of economic indicators and central bank policy decisions in the fall. However, Matrixport posits that this years unique economic and political context could disrupt these usual trends, setting the stage for an unseasonal rally. Conclusively, Matrixport maintains a cautiously optimistic stance for Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 2024. “Considering the confluence of a narrowing price range, likely easing of US monetary policy, and the potential impacts of the US Presidential election, we are poised to witness a significant bullish breakout in Bitcoin’s price trajectory,” the report concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $64,730. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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Matrixport Co-Founder Says Crypto Market Mirrors Early June: What This Means

Author: Jake Simmons

United Kingdom

Source: NewsBTC

Jul 03, 2024 12:05

Matrixport Co-Founder Says Crypto Market Mirrors Early June: What This Means

In a recent commentary on X, Daniel Yan, co-founder of Matrixport and CIO at Kryptanium Capital, offered a detailed comparison between the current crypto market dynamics and those observed in early June. His insights are especially relevant as the market approaches several key economic releases that could significantly influence the trajectory of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL). History Repeating For The Crypto Market? Yan’s analysis began with an overview of the current market recovery, noting that both BTC and SOL are “grinding at key technical levels nicely now,” suggesting a potential setup for a breakout similar to the situation in early June. During that period, Bitcoin was challenging a major resistance level at $71,500, influenced by positive Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and weaker-than-expected ADP employment change numbers, which fueled optimism about a potentially dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Related Reading: Circle Awarded Europes First Stablecoin License Under New MiCA Crypto Rules However, Yan drew attention to the volatility that followed, when a stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reversed the bullish sentiment, causing Bitcoin to plummet from highs of $72,000 to around $58,000 within two weeks. He highlighted this pattern to caution investors about the potential for similar market reactions in the current context. Looking forward, Yan expressed a generally bullish outlook for Q3 2023, citing improving liquidity conditions and the resolution of the Mt. Gox case, which has loomed over the market for years. Yet, he remains wary of the short-term impacts of the upcoming NFP release, scheduled for this Friday. “I’m getting cautious going into the NFP Friday – a similar first half of the pattern may happen,” he warned. Yan also pointed to the CPI release as the next crucial data point, with the Cleveland Fed providing modest estimates for June but less favorable projections for July. He emphasized the impact of summer energy prices on inflation metrics, noting that rising crude oil and gas prices since early June are likely to influence both headline CPI and PCE directly, and core inflation numbers indirectly. “A 0.3% MoM Core CPI expectation is already bad, imagine it realizes worse,” he remarked, underscoring the potential for these figures to exceed expectations to the upside, further complicating the Fed’s inflation management efforts. Related Reading: Buy Crypto Now: Lekker Capital CIO Spotlights Prime Opportunity The immediate focus for Yan and many in the crypto community is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech tonight at the European Central Bank. His comments are highly anticipated for hints on how the Fed views the current macroeconomic conditions and its potential policy actions in the near term. “Let’s see what he thinks of the current macro situations,” Yan stated, indicating the significant market-moving potential of Powell’s address. Bitcoin Breakout Needs Confirmation Matrixport released a “Chart of the Day” featuring Bitcoin’s price movements from June 2 to July 1, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s recent break from a short-term downtrend. After signaling a bottom on June 25 on their Matrixport Greed & Fear indexa tool often used to predict potential reversalsBitcoin showed signs of an oversold condition, which typically precedes a price recovery. Indeed, Bitcoin’s price began to rebound tactically over the weekend, overcoming some of the immediate technical hurdles. While the market appears to be setting up for a potential rally, Yans analysis and the impending economic updates suggest that investors should brace for possible fluctuations. As these events unfold, the crypto markets response to economic indicators and central bank communications will be pivotal in shaping its short-term direction. At press time, BTC traded at $62,802. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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