Bitcoins Most Critical Support Level At $69,000 Heres Why

The price of Bitcoin made a strong start to the month of April, reaching as high as $87,000 on Wednesday, April 2. The flagship cryptocurrency couldn’t sustain this blistering momentum, dropping below $84,000 in the late hours of Friday, April 4. However, the BTC price has been relatively stable compared to the altcoin market and the US equities market following the announcement of new trade tariffs by United States President Donald Trump. This show of resilience has reinforced the idea that the bull cycle might not be over just yet. Why Bitcoin Price Must Remain Above $69,000 In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci analyzed the Bitcoin market relative to the downturn affecting the broader financial markets. The analyst offered insight on the most critical support level should the premier cryptocurrency witness a similar decline. Related Reading: PEPE Price Breaks Ascending Triangle To Target Another 20% Crash Kesmeci pinpointed the Bitcoin Spot ETF Realized Price as a crucial metric to watch if the price of BTC succumbs to bearish pressure. As its name suggests, the Bitcoin Spot ETF Realized Price indicator measures the average price at which each Bitcoin exchange-traded fund was acquired. According to Kesmeci, the average purchase price of the BTC ETFs has acted as a formidable support area since the exchange-traded funds launched in early 2024. As observed in the chart below, the flagship cryptocurrency has tested the Bitcoin ETF’s realized price multiple times in the past 15 months. Kesmeci highlighted that the ETF realized price and Bitcoins most critical support level currently stand at around $69,000. The community analyst noted that the premier cryptocurrency is less likely to witness any severe correction so long as it does not slip beneath this price level. When Will BTC Resume Bull Run? While the Bitcoin ETFs realized price is a crucial support level that could prevent a deep correction, the short-term holder (STH) realized price could prove pivotal to the resumption of the bull run. Ali Martinez said in a post on X that the first signal that BTC is ready to resume its bull run is reclaiming the short-term holder realized price at $90,570. As seen in the chart above, the STH realized price is acting as a major resistance to the premier cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin price has tested the on-chain indicator twice since falling beneath it in late February. As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $83,900, reflecting an over 1% price leap in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of BTC is down by nearly 1% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Chainlink Whales Dump Over 170 Million LINK In Three Weeks Selling Pressure Ahead? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Trader Selling Pressure Declining, CryptoQuant Head Explains Why

The head of research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why selling pressure from Bitcoin traders may be declining. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Has Risen To $60,000 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has discussed why the short-term holder selling pressure may be declining for BTC. [...]

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Bitcoin Rebounds After Nearing Cost Basis Of Short-Term Whales

Bitcoin has found a rebound back above the $66,000 mark following a drop towards the on-chain cost basis of the short-term holder whales. Bitcoin Drawdown Had Nearly Put Short-Term Whales Under Pressure As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC’s price had neared the Realized Price of the short-term holder whales during the recent drop, but had still managed to remain above the level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis (that is, the acquisition price) of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: PEPE Preparing For A 54% Move? Analyst Thinks So When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this level, it means that the investors as a whole are in a state of unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, it being under implies the overall market is carrying losses. In the context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire Bitcoin market isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the short-term holder (STH) whales. The STHs refer to the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, while the whales are categorized as entities holding greater than 1,000 BTC. As such, the STH whales would refer to the large investors who bought during the last five months. Naturally, the Realized Price of this group would indicate the average whale buying price over the past five months (and this price would obviously have to be one the cryptocurrency had traded at on some occasion inside this timeframe). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STH whales over the last decade: The value of the metric appears to have shot up in recent months | Source: CryptoQuant From the graph, it’s visible that the Realized Price of the STH whales has rapidly climbed alongside the sharp rally Bitcoin has gone through this year. This makes sense, as the STHs represent the new hands coming into the market, who would have to buy at higher prices as the asset’s surge would continue. Not only that, but the STHs who age past the 155 days mark (that is, those who bought at the relatively low prices) exit out of the cohort, thus raising the average even further. The group that these matured investors advance to is known as the long-term holder (LTH) cohort. In the same chart, the quant has also attached the data for the Realized Price of the LTH whales as well. It would appear that these veteran whales have their cost basis at just $21,500, meaning that these investors would be getting some big rewards for their patience. In contrast, the STH whales have their Realized Price at $60,700. Related Reading: Dogecoin Usurped: These Memecoins Overtake DOGE In Active Trader Count During Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, the asset had come close to retesting this mark. Such retests have historically lead to reactions in the market and during bull runs, this reaction has often appeared in the form of buying. This may be why the cryptocurrency found its rebound near the $60,700 level. BTC Price With its latest rebound, Bitcoin has so far managed to recover back towards the $66,500 level. Looks like the price of the coin has made some recovery from its recent drop | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Thomas Kelley on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin To $53,200? Why History Says Its Possible

As Bitcoin drops below $68,000, history suggests this correction is rather tame for bull markets, as plunges to this deep on-chain level have been the norm. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $53,200 As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post on X, BTC still has a decent margin over the realized price of the short-term holders. The “realized price” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average price at which the Bitcoin investors acquired their coins. The indicator calculates this value by going through the transaction history of each coin and assuming that the last transfer of it was the last time it was purchased (that is, the price at the time is its current cost basis). Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? 3 Key Reasons When the spot value of the cryptocurrency dips below the realized price, it means that the average investor is now in a state of loss. On the other hand, a break above implies the market as a whole has entered into net profits. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price for only a particular segment of the investors is of interest: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for this cohort: Looks like the value of the metric has been trending up recently | Source: @JA_Maartun on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH realized price has shot up recently as the price of the asset has gone up. This makes sense, as this group includes the most recent buyers, who would continuously be buying at higher prices in an uptrend, thus raising their average cost basis. At present, this cohort’s realized price is about $53,200. During the past day, BTC has seen a sharp drop that has taken its price below the $68,000 mark, but clearly, the STHs would still be in high profits even after this drawdown. “In previous bull markets, the average cost basis of short-term holders was fully reset multiple times,” explains Maartunn. This trend is most prominent in the data for the 2017 bull run when the price retested this level several times. An interesting pattern that has been held is that these retests of the level during bull trends have generally resulted in the cryptocurrency finding support and turning itself back around. The explanation for this trend may lie in the fickle nature of the STHs. The cost basis is an important level for these investors, and when a retest of it happens, they panic and show some reaction. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: MicroStrategy Is Planning Another $500 Million Bitcoin Purchase During uptrends, these holders are more likely to buy more when a retest of their cost basis occurs since they may think that the same price levels that were profitable earlier will be so again in the near future. Naturally, it’s not a certainty that Bitcoin would also end up retesting this level in this bull market. Still, a correction might reach close to it if the historical precedent is anything to go by. BTC Price Following its 7% drop in the past day, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700. The price of the coin has registered a sharp drop over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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This Highly Profitable Bitcoin Cross Has Just Formed Again

On-chain data shows that a Bitcoin cross that has proved quite profitable has once again formed for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders Overtakes Long-Term Holders As an analyst in a CryptoQuant post explained, the realized price of the 1 to 3 months holders has just exceeded that of the 6 to 12 months investors. The “realized price” here refers to a metric derived from the “realized cap,” which is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes a coin’s true value is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain rather than the current BTC price as the usual market cap says. The realized price is obtained when the realized cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation. Since the realized cap accounted for the prices at which the investors acquired their coins (their “cost basis”), the realized price represents the average acquisition price in the market. This means that whenever the Bitcoin price dips below this metric, the average cryptocurrency investor holds assets at a loss. Similarly, a break above implies a transition towards profits for the average investor. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price of three specific segments of the market is relevant; the holders who bought between 1 month and 3 months ago, 3 months and 6 months ago, and 6 months and 12 months ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Enters Overbought Zone The first two of these are parts of the “short-term holder” (STH) cohort, while the third one is part of the “long-term holder” (LTH) group. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for these segments of the market: Looks like two of these metrics have come together in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As shown in the above graph, an interesting pattern formed during the leadup to the 2021 bull run. First, the realized price of the 1-month to 3 months cohort exceeded that of the 6- 12 months group. Following this crossover, BTC saw some sharp uptrend, but it didn’t last long. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: aSOPR Retests Crucial Level Then, as this price increase winded down, the 3- 6 months segment also crossed above this LTH cohort. These crossovers implied that fresh purchases were happening in the market as the rally built up. Since the prices were rising during this leadup, the STHs had to buy at higher and higher prices, which is why their realized price went up and eventually became higher than the LTHs’. After these crossovers were completed, the BTC bull run ramped up. Recently, the first of these crossovers seem to be forming again, as the realized price of the 1-month 3 months group is now equal to that of the 6 months to 12 months band. While it’s uncertain if the second crossover will also go and take shape now, Bitcoin could observe at least some bullish momentum from this initial cross alone (assuming that it’s not just a fake-out), just like it did back in 2020. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,800, up 1% in the last week. BTC has seen rapid increase in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Dylan Leagh on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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$28.7k Could Be Next Level To Break For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

On-chain data suggests the $28,700 mark, which Bitcoin has yet to hit since the LUNA collapse, could be the next major obstacle to clear for the asset. Bitcoin Has Been Under The $28,700 Level For 310 Days Now According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the $28,700 is the cost basis (that is, [...]

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Here’s Why $22,400 Could Be The Next Major Level To Break For Bitcoin

As Bitcoin continues its strong rally, $22,400 could be the level to watch next, if this on-chain metric is anything to go by. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $22,400 According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC broke through all three realized prices of the market back in April 2019. To understand the concept of “realized price,” the realized cap needs to be looked at first. The realized cap is a capitalization model for BTC that values each coin in circulation at the price it was last transacted. This is different from the usual market cap, which puts the value of all tokens at the same current price of Bitcoin. When the market cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the BTC price is obtained, a fact that isn’t unexpected at all, as the market cap is calculated by multiplying the price by the number of coins to start with. However, if this same idea is applied to the realized cap (that is if it’s divided by the number of coins), a sort of “realized price” can be derived. The significance of this price is that it’s the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. The implication of this is that if the (normal) price of BTC declines under this realized price, the average investor can be thought to have entered into a state of loss. Related Reading: Glassnode Points Out This Bizarre Consistency In Bitcoin Cycles All investors in the market can be divided into two major cohorts: the “short-term holders” (STHs) and the “long-term holders” (LTHs). The former includes investors who acquired their coins less than 155 days ago, while the latter consists of holders who have been holding their coins for more than that period. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the realized price for the entire Bitcoin market, as well as that for the STHs and LTHs, over the last five years: Looks like the value of the crypto has broken past all but one of these metrics | Source: Glassnode The Week Onchain - Week 3, 2023 As shown in the above graph, the BTC price had been below all three of these realized prices for much of the bear market, suggesting that the average Bitcoin investor in all the cohorts was carrying an unrealized loss. However, in the most recent rally, the crypto has so far managed to break above the STH cost basis ($18,000), as well as that of the entire market ($19,700). The LTH realized price of about $22,400 is yet to be reached by the coin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Show Signs Of Dumping, Bad For Rally? A similar rally took place back in April 2019, which marked the end of the 2018-2019 bear market. But in that rally, Bitcoin managed to rise above all three of the realized prices. If a similar transition is truly taking place in this bear market as well, then the $22,400 level could be the one to watch for next, as a break above it could imply a return towards a bullish regime. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $21,100, up 22% in the last week. BTC continues to move sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Bitcoin Now Under Realized Price For 163 Days, Here’s How This Compares Historically

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has now been below its realized price for 163 days in this bear market; here’s how this compares with previous cycles. Bitcoin Realized Price Is Currently Valued At Around $19,900 According to CryptoQuant’s year-end dashboard release, the bear market would be over if BTC reclaims this level. To understand what the “realized price” is, the “realized cap” must be looked at first. The realized cap is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that aims to provide a sort of “real value” for the crypto. Unlike the usual market cap, which simply values each coin in circulation using the current BTC price, the realized cap prices each token at the same price it was last moved. For example, if 1 BTC was bought at $20,000, but the price has now changed to $16,000, the market cap will consider it valued at $16,000. The realized cap, however, will say its true value is $20,000. Now, if the total realized cap of Bitcoin is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, a “realized price” is obtained. This price signifies the cost-basis of the average coin in the market (that is, the price at which investors acquired the average coin at). Here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC realized price over the entire history of the asset: The BTC price seems to have been below this metric in recent months | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph displays, the normal price of Bitcoin has been below the realized price for a while now. Historically, BTC has spent very little time in this region, as only the worst phases of a bear market usually pull the coin below the level. From the chart, it’s apparent that In the 2011-2012 bear market, BTC spent 158 days under the realized price. Then, in 2014-2015, the coin spent a whopping 276 days in this zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Interexchange Flow Pulse About To Reverse, What Does It Mean? The 2018-2019 bear saw the shortest amount of time in the region, as the price took 134 days to pull itself above the level. Finally, Bitcoin has been trapped under the realized price for 163 days in the current cycle. This means that BTC has spent more time in this region in the current bear market than in any other before, except for 2014-2015. If the current bear is comparable to 2014-2015, then it would mean there is still more than 100 days to go before Bitcoin can exit the zone. Related Reading: Litecoin Bullish Signal: Shark And Whale Addresses Hit 2-Year High Either way, CryptoQuant expects the crypto to reclaim this level somewhere in 2023, and it will be then that this bear may be considered to be over. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,600, down 1% in the last week. BTC has declined in the last two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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These Are The Four Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch, Reveals Analyst

An analyst has revealed the four key Bitcoin price levels that could be to keep an eye on, as they may have an influence on the spot price’s trajectory. These Are The Four Key Price Points For Bitcoin In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn has shared four key price levels for Bitcoin. Three of these levels involve some kind of variation of the “realized price” on-chain indicator. The realized price keeps track of the price at which the average investor on the network acquired their coins. In other words, the metric measures the average cost basis of the asset’s user base. Related Reading: BitMEX Whales Buy Bitcoin: What History Says Will Happen Next When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is greater than the realized price, it means that the average holder in the sector can be assumed to be carrying some profits right now. On the other hand, the price being under the indicator implies the market as a whole is underwater some net amount at the moment. Naturally, the price is exactly equal to the metric, suggesting the average holder is just breaking even on their investment currently. Historically, this is the condition that has been of particular importance for the coin, as such retests can flip the profit-loss situation of the investors. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that reveals the trend in the four key Bitcoin price points in question over the last few years: The four historically relevant price levels for the cryptocurrency | Source: @JA_Maartun on X In the above graph, the red colored line (which also happens to have the highest value out of these right now) corresponds to the realized price of the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs refer to the investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days. At present, the average cost basis of this cohort stands at $38,750. In bullish periods, this level has often been a point of major support for the asset, and Bitcoin came quite close to retesting it during its latest drawdown. Opposite to the STHs are the “long-term holders” (LTHs), whose realized price is shown by the green curve in the chart. The indicator’s value is only $18,740 for this cohort currently, implying that these HODLers are carrying high amounts of profits. The purple line in the graph represents the “adjusted realized price,” which is a metric that provides a baseline for the market in general. Bitcoin found its bottom back in September when it retested this level. Currently, the indicator’s value stands at $31,190. Related Reading: XRP Whales Are On The Move, What Are They Up To? Close to this line right now is the fourth and final price level pointed out by the analyst, the 200-week moving average (MA), which is at $30,500. 200 weeks is approximately how long the popular 4-year Bitcoin cycle lasts for, so this MA can help reveal the cycle baseline momentum for the coin. Maartunn, in particular, finds this 200-week MA and the adjusted realized price to be the most intriguing levels out of the four listed here. BTC Price Bitcoin had made a visit under the $42,000 level yesterday, but it appears the asset has already bounced back, as it’s now trading above $43,000 again. Looks like the price of the asset has seen some surge over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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How Close Is Bitcoin To A Bear Market? This Historical Level May Contain Hints

A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here’s how far the asset’s price is currently from this line. Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price is above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of profit, while it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss. Related Reading: Why Litecoin Wont Break OutAnalytics Firm Reveals the Cause Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju, which shows the trend in its value for four Bitcoin cohorts: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin is above the Realized Price of all of these groups right now, so their members would all be sitting on some unrealized gains. Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the Realized Price of the New Whales (colored in orange). The New Whales, also called the Short-Term Holder Whales, refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price currently stands at $89,300 for this cohort, which means BTC could be at risk of retesting it in the near future if the bearish trajectory continues. A potential dip under the level, though, wouldn’t immediately signal a shift towards a bear market; it would only imply a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green). The Miner Whales refer to the wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant founder has explained that BTC’s plunges under the mark during the last couple of cycles have all led to bear markets. At present, the Realized Price of the Miner Whales is situated at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to go through a drawdown of almost 40% in order to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now. Related Reading: Glassnode Reveals Where Bitcoin Could Find Support If Current Level Breaks Down While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales. These whales, who have been resolutely holding Bitcoin since more than 155 days ago, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now. BTC Price Bitcoin witnessed a plunge under the $94,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the coin has already found a rebound as its price is now back at $96,200. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Decline Continues: Is $86,800 The Level To Watch?

On-chain data shows the Realized Price of the Bitcoin short-term holders lies at $86,800 right now, making the level one to watch. Bitcoin Is Still At A Notable Gap From Short-Term Holder Cost Basis In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the trend in the profit-loss status of the Bitcoin short-term holders. The indicator of relevance here is the “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio,” which keeps track of the ratio between BTC’s Market Cap and its Realized Cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Now Worst Since Mid-October: Reversal Signal? The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain capitalization model for the cryptocurrency that assumes the ‘real’ value of each token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Since the last transfer of any coin is likely to correspond to the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the Realized Cap is nothing, but the sum of the capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the Market Cap represents the value that the holders are carrying right now. As the MVRV Ratio compares these two models, its value tells us about the profit-loss situation of the network. The traditional MVRV Ratio measures this for the entire market, but the version of the metric that’s of interest in the current topic is that specifically for the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the past year or so: As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio spiked to notable levels above the 1 mark when the recent leg up in the BTC rally took place. The indicator being above this value implies the Market Cap of the group is greater than its Realized Cap, and so, the average member is in a state of profit. Recently, as the decline in the cryptocurrency’s price has occurred, the indicator has naturally gone down. Its value still remains above the 1 level, though, suggesting profits held by the cohort still outweigh the losses. At present, the STH MVRV Ratio is sitting at 1.08, which corresponds to the group holding unrealized gains of around 8%. Historically, the STHs have shown to represent the fickle-minded side of the market that easily participates in selloffs, so their being in large profits has tended to be a danger sign for the price. The cohort is no longer making significant profits after the drawdown, but perhaps a cooldown may need to happen if the risk of profit-taking has to go away. A metric that makes it convenient to track when this could happen is the “Realized Price,” which is derived from the Realized Cap by dividing it with the total number of tokens in circulation. Related Reading: Dogecoin To Rally 6,770% If This Pattern Holds: Crypto Analyst From the chart, it’s visible that the STH Realized Price has a value of $86,800 right now, which means the group will be just breaking-even on its investment if Bitcoin falls to this level. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly fell under the $92,000 level yesterday, but the coin has found a small rebound as its price is now trading around $94,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Realized Price Moves Further Away From Market Value Bearish Signal Or Not?

Bitcoin declined by 1.83% in the past week pushing its market price to below $97,000. Despite this loss, market sentiments on premier cryptocurrency remain highly bullish amidst a 61% price gain that stretches to early October. However, Bitcoins impressive ascent to new points over the past few weeks has resulted in potentially bearish market developments. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Bounces Back: Will the Climb Continue? Bitcoin Realized Price Up ‘Only’ $37,000 Amidst Charge To $100,000 In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Grizzly shared an intriguing insight on Bitcoins realized price following the assets recent price surge.  According to Grizzly, as Bitcoin moved from $60,000 to almost $100,000 in the past two months, its realized price only rose from $31,000-$32,000 to $37,000 indicating a widening gap between both values which produces multiple implications. For context, realized price means the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation was purchased, effectively representing the aggregate cost basis of all holders. It is often applied in investor behavior analysis as well as identifying market cycles.  A rise in realized price is generally a positive development which indicates heightened capital inflows as new investors are purchasing Bitcoin at elevated price levels. Furthermore, an increased realized price also signals a reduced selling pressure from long-term holders despite significant price gains which is a strong representation of market confidence.  However, Grizzly explains that a widening gap between market price and realized price as presently seen traditionally signals short-term overheating that indicates an unsustainable price growth driven by speculation with no underlying fundamentals. Albeit, the analyst also highlights that historical data has shown Bitcoin to witness similar widening gaps in previous bull seasons with sustained price growth. This phenomenon can be attributed to the rapid price appreciation recorded in a typical bull run.  Therefore, the current widening gap between Bitcoins realized price and market price may likely bear no influence on the asset’s present bullish trajectory.  Related Reading: Is $135,000 Bitcoins Current Ceiling? This Model Says So BTC Records Largest Exchange Withdrawal In Two Years In other news, the crypto community has now experienced the highest outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges since December 2022. According to the team at CryptoOnChain, this development strongly signifies that BTCs bullish rally has much room to run. At press time, the crypto market leader is valued at $96,468 following a 0.08% decline in the past day. However, Bitcoin remains in profit on larger time frames as evidenced by a 38.22% gain in the past thirty days. With a market cap of $1.91 trillion, the premier cryptocurrency remains the largest digital asset accounting for 55.9% of the total crypto market. Featured image from Business Standard, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin Analyst Reveals Best On-Chain Metric For Day-To-Day Trading

An analyst has explained how this Bitcoin on-chain indicator has been one of the best in terms of short-term trading during the past month. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Has Proven To Be Reliable Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Community Manager Maartunn has discussed about an indicator that’s suited for doing day-to-day BTC trading. The metric in question is the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin network. When the spot price of the coin is greater than this metric, the holders as a whole are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss in the market. Related Reading: Ethereum Could Push To $6,000 If This Pattern Holds, Analyst Says In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a particular segment of the sector is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs are made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort corresponds to one of the two main divisions of the Bitcoin market done on the basis of holding time, with the other group being known as the long-term holders (LTHs). Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the past month: In the above graph, Maartunn has highlighted all the instances where the Bitcoin price made a retest of the STH Realized Price during this window. It would appear that the line has acted as both support and resistance for the asset. The cryptocurrency finding a break above the line has turned it into support, while it falling under has led to the level changing into resistance. This is actually a pattern that the STH Realized Price has displayed throughout history, not just the past month. As for why the indicator shows such interactions with the coin’s price, the answer may lie in investor psychology. The STHs tend to include the most fickle-minded investors in the market and they are particularly sensitive to retests of their cost basis. When Bitcoin retests their Realized Price from above, they may decide to buy more of the asset, as they could believe that the same level would prove to be profitable again in the future. This accumulation provides support to the BTC price. Related Reading: Solana Extends Rally By 4%, But This Factor Could Lead To A Top Similarly, the STHs can sell as a reaction to a retest from below, as they may fear that they would go into losses once more in the near term, so exiting at the break-even would at least give them their money back. While the Bitcoin STH Realized Price does tend to carry some reliability, it can also show some deviations. As the analyst has marked in the chart, one such outlier instance occurred just earlier in the month. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $65,700, up more than 5% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Here Are The Pricing Models Bitcoin Must Stay Above For Rally To Go On

Here are the pricing model lines that Bitcoin might have to stay above if the bullish momentum of the cryptocurrency has to continue. These Bitcoin Pricing Models Are Currently Near The Spot Price In a new tweet, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the three pricing models, the adjusted realized price, the [...]

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Bitcoin Drops Under $29,000, Here’s Where BTC Could Find Support Next

Bitcoin has plunged below the $29,000 level during the past day. According to on-chain data, here’s the next level that could act as major support. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price May Be The Next Support Level As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the realized price of the short-term holders at $28,000 could be an essential level for the asset. The “realized price” here refers to the cost basis (that is, the buying price) of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. Whenever the price of the asset dips below this level, it means that more than 50% of the investors are now underwater. Similarly, a break above the point implies that the overall market has entered into a state of profits. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price of the entire market isn’t of relevance, but rather of a specific segment of it: the “short-term holders” (STHs). This investor group typically only includes holders who bought their BTC within the last six months. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the average cost basis for this Bitcoin cohort over the history of the cryptocurrency: How the realized price of the STHs has shifted throughout history | Source: CryptoQuant Historically, the Bitcoin STH realized price has had some interesting interactions with the spot price of the asset. First is the interactions during bullish periods, which the quant has highlighted in the above graph. It would appear that during these rallies, the price has usually remained above the level. But not just that, the STH realized price has actually actively provided support to it in such periods. In the rally during the past year, too, a similar trend has been seen, as both during the March and June price drawdowns, the cryptocurrency rebounded when it made a retest of this line. Related Reading: Is Another Bitcoin Rally Coming Soon? This Pattern May Say So Psychologically, investors view their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity during bullish periods, as they believe that the price will only go up from here. So, whenever the asset returns to its cost basis in such periods, they are likely to accumulate again. This extraordinary buying pressure at the level of the STHs could perhaps explain why Bitcoin finds support here. In a similar way, the level acts as resistance during bearish periods, as investors start looking at their acquisition price as the ideal exit opportunity. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin spot price is approaching the STH realized price once again right now. This level, which is valued at $28,000 currently, could possibly be where Bitcoin can turn around its recent trend of decline. Related Reading: US Presidential Candidate Defends Bitcoin, Calls Out Environmental Critics The analyst warns, however, “if the realized price of short-term holders fails to hold, the bull market may be over.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,900, down 1% in the last week. BTC has been going down recently | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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