This Is How Bitcoin (BTC) Could Resume its Bull Run and Chart New ATH

Regulatory develoments, market sentiment, and increased adoption are among the listed factors.

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Bitcoin Breaks $64,000, But This Pattern Could Mean Bull Run Isnt Safe

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Profit indicator has been forming a pattern recently that could put the bull run into jeopardy. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Has Seen Multiple Dips Into “Transition” Zone Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the recent “Supply in Profit” trend could suggest a potential entry into [...]

The post Bitcoin Breaks $64,000, But This Pattern Could Mean Bull Run Isnt Safe appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

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Bitcoin And Altcoin Bull Run Will Return, Arthur Hayes Reveals Timeline

In a new essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has outlined a bullish future for Bitcoin and altcoins. His analysis, focused on the interplay between government liquidity operations and asset prices, suggests a looming bull market in the crypto space, driven by strategic fiscal maneuvers by the US Treasury. When Will The Bitcoin Bull Run Return? Hayes compares the quality of water in brewing coffee to the liquidity in financial markets, illustrating that just as the quality of water is crucial for making a good cup of coffee, liquidity is essential for the health and movement of financial markets. Hayes pointed out that many investors underestimate the impact of liquidity and often focus narrowly on more visible factors like technological advancements or regulatory changes. Hayes explains the concept of “fiscal dominance,” a situation where the government’s need to finance itself supersedes all other economic considerations, including the control of inflation. He specifically critiques the current policies under US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, whose tactics, according to Hayes, focus on generating nominal economic growth regardless of the inflationary outcomes. Related Reading: BTCs Next Objective? Analyst Eyes Crucial $70,000 Resistance Zone For Bitcoin “During a period of fiscal dominance, the necessity to fund the state overrides any concerns the central bank may have about inflation,” Hayes explains. He details how this shift impacts liquidity, stating, “That means bank credit and, by extension, nominal GDP growth must be sustained at high levels even if it results in persistently higher than target inflation.” Drawing a direct connection between Treasury actions and crypto market movements, Hayes highlighted the correlation between the issuance of Treasury bills (T-bills) and Bitcoin price movements. He noted that when the Treasury increases T-bill issuance, it effectively shifts liquidity from instruments like the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) into more active uses, which historically corresponds with increases in Bitcoin prices. As the RRP (white) fell from its high, Bitcoin (gold) pumped off the lows. As you can see, its a very tight relationship. As money leaves the Feds balance sheet, it adds liquidity, which causes […] Therefore, taking Bad Gurl Yellens word, we know that $301bn of T-bills will be net issued between now and year-end. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly retrace the dump caused by the yen strengthening. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000″ Hayes speculates. When Altcoin Season? Therefore, Hayes advises crypto traders to pay close attention to fiscal and monetary policies, especially the actions of the US Treasury, as these are often precursors to significant market movements. Monitoring T-bill issuance and Treasury maneuvers can provide crypto investors with clues about upcoming shifts in market liquidity and potential price movements, according to Hayes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Again Show Extreme Fear As BTC Slips To $59,000 Shifting focus to the broader crypto market, Hayes also discusses the potential for an ‘alt szn’ or altcoin season, which he predicts will follow a rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. “Shitcoins are higher beta Bitcoin crypto plays. But during this cycle, Bitcoin and now Ether have structural bids in the form of net inflows into US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETF). While Bitcoin and Ether have corrected since April, they escaped the carnage experienced in the shitcoin markets. Commenting on the potential of a full blown altcoin season like in previous cycles, Hayes assures that the time will come. However, altcoin season will only return after Bitcoin and Ether decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. He adds, the combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree. Interestingly, Hayes plans to capitalize on the US elections. He expects that the crypto bull run will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory in September. The US election occurs in early November. Yellen will be at peak manipulation in October. There will be no better time for liquidity this year. Therefore, I shall sell into strength. I will not liquidate my entire crypto portfolio but take profits in my more speculative momentum trades, he revealed. Hayes further anticipates a more substantial market adjustment post US election and the US debt ceiling resolutions, “Once the US debt ceiling charade is over, liquidity will gush from the Treasury and possibly the Fed to get markets back on track. Then, the bull market will begin for realz. $1 million Bitcoin is still my base case.” At press time, BTC traded at $58,783. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

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Nansen Says Bitcoin Investors Should Become Risk-On, Heres Why

Nansens analysts insist that investors should take more risks and not resist current all-green signals and narratives.

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Bitcoin Bull Run Tied To Economic Echoes Of The 1930s-1970: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has recently offered a comprehensive analysis in his latest essay, “Zoom Out,” drawing compelling parallels between the economic upheavals of the 1930s-1970s and today’s financial landscape, specifically focusing on the implications for the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. His in-depth examination suggests that historical economic patterns, when properly understood, can provide a blueprint for understanding the potential revival of the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. Understanding Financial Cycles Hayes begins his analysis by exploring the major economic cycles starting from the Great Depression, through the mid-20th century economic booms, and into the stagnant 1970s. He categorizes these transformations into what he terms “Local” and “Global” cycles, central to understanding the broader macroeconomic forces at play. Local Cycles are characterized by intense national focus where economic protectionism and financial repression are prevalent. These cycles often arise from governmental responses to severe economic crises that prioritize national recovery over global cooperation, typically leading to inflationary outcomes due to the devaluation of fiat currencies and increased government spending. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Blasts Past $63,000: Top 3 Reasons Global Cycles, in contrast, are marked by periods of economic liberalization, where global trade and investment are encouraged, often leading to deflationary pressures due to increased competition and efficiency in global markets. Hayes carefully examines each cycle’s impact on asset classes, noting that during Local cycles, non-fiat assets like gold have historically performed well due to their nature as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. Hayes draws a direct parallel between the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 and the economic environment of the 1930s. Just as the economic crises of the early 20th century led to transformative monetary policies, the financial crash of 2008 and subsequent quantitative easing set the stage for the introduction of Bitcoin. Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Will Resume Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s emergence during what he identifies as a renewed Local cycle, characterized by the global recession and significant central bank interventions, mirrors past periods where traditional financial systems were under stress, and alternative assets like gold rose to prominence. Expanding on the analogy between gold in the 1930s and Bitcoin today, Hayes elucidates how gold served as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and rampant inflation. He posits that Bitcoin, with its decentralized and state-independent nature, is well-suited to serve a similar purpose in today’s volatile economic climate. Related Reading: Mt. Goxs Bitcoin Dump: How Will The $9 Billion Sell-Off Affect BTCs Price? “Bitcoin operates outside the traditional state systems, and its value proposition becomes particularly evident in times of inflation and financial repression,” Hayes notes. This feature of Bitcoin, he argues, makes it an indispensable asset for those seeking to preserve wealth amidst currency devaluation and fiscal instability. Hayes points out the significant surge in the US budget deficit, projected to reach $1.915 trillion in fiscal 2024, as a modern indicator that parallels the fiscal expansions of past Local cycles. This deficit, significantly higher than in previous years, marking the highest level outside the COVID-19 era, is attributed to increased government spending akin to historical periods of government-induced economic stimuli. Hayes uses these fiscal indicators to suggest that just as past Local cycles led to increased valuation for non-state assets, the current fiscal and monetary policies are likely to enhance the appeal and value of Bitcoin. “Why am I confident that Bitcoin will regain its mojo? Why am I confident that we are in the midst of a new mega-local, nation-state first, inflationary cycle?” Hayes asks rhetorically in his essay. He believes that the same dynamics that drove the value of assets like gold during past economic upheavals are now aligning to bolster the value of Bitcoin. He concludes, I believe fiscal and monetary conditions are loose and will continue to be loose, and therefore, hodling crypto is the best way to preserve wealth. I am confident that today will rhyme with the 1930s to 1970s, and that means, given I can still freely move from fiat to crypto, I should do so because debasement through the expansion and centralisation of credit allocation through the banking system is coming. At press time, BTC traded at $62,649. Featured image from YouTube / What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com

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Analysts forecast $200K+ Bitcoin price after BTCs bullish momentum returns

Bitcoins decisive move above $65,000 and miners' return to deep profitability could lead to BTC hitting $220,000.

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Bitcoin traders forecast splendid bullish price action now that BTC is above $65K

Multiple Bitcoin price metrics point to an incredibly bullish post-halving growth trajectory.

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Crypto Market Still in Bull Cycle But There Are Worrying Signs: CryptoQuant

The lack of bullish momentum in the crypto market is evident in weak bitcoin whale demand growth and low stablecoin liquidity.

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Bitcoin In Euphoria Wave How Long Until The Bull Run Ends?

The price of Bitcoin appears to have returned to a choppy market condition, quashing any hopes of a breakout to new highs soon. However, the good news is that the current bull cycle may still not be over, even though it is taking a while for the premier cryptocurrency to resume its upward momentum. Specifically, the latest on-chain observation shows that Bitcoin has been going through a euphoria wave over the past few months. Here’s the implication of this phase on the current bull run. How Old Is The Current Bitcoin ‘Euphoria Wave’? Blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode revealed via a post on the X platform that Bitcoin has entered the euphoria phase of the market cycle. This on-chain observation is based on the Percent Supply in Profit metric, which measures the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that is currently in profit. Related Reading: Can BONK Break The Mold? Analyst Predicts Stellar Rise For The Solana Memecoin According to Glassnode, the Euphoria Wave is identified as a period during which the supply in profit usually fluctuates around the 90% level. This phase typically lasts between 6 to 12 months and is characterized by increased investor sentiment and heightened market speculation. Glassnodes data shows that 93.4% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in the green and that the Euphoria Wave is relatively young. The on-chain analytics platform noted that the euphoria phase has only been active for about two and a half months. As with every phase in the market cycle, the Euphoria Wave will eventually come to an end at some point. Historically, the euphoria phase can signal tops and is usually followed by a cooling-off period, which is marked by a downturn in the price of Bitcoin.  If the last cycle – with a 6-month Euphoria Wave – is anything to go by, then there might still be about three to four months in the current bull run. Ultimately, the current profitability of the premier cryptocurrency may prove pivotal in the duration of its bull cycle and overall future trajectory. Rise Of BTC Accumulation Addresses Continued In May: Analyst One of the tell-tale signs of the bullish sentiment around Bitcoin is the continuous rise in accumulation addresses. According to an on-chain analyst on CryptoQuants platform, there has been a notable increase in the number of new BTC accumulation addresses. The analyst pointed out the continuity of this positive trend despite BTCs relatively slow price action in May. Meanwhile, the large Bitcoin holders have also continued to load their bags, with significant purchases recorded over the past month. Related Reading: Dogecoin Whales Buy $112 Million Worth Of DOGE As Crypto Investors Turn Their Attention To Meme Coins As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $67,744, reflecting a mere 0.4% increase in the last 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the pioneer cryptocurrency is up by about 15% in the past month. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Bull Score Jumps to 80 as Spot Demand Fuels Optimism

BTC's Bull Score Index went from 20 to 80 as spot demand sparked a $103K breakout, marking one of the most bullish readings in a year.

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4 Good Signs for Bitcoin Prices in May With $100K Back in View

Bitcoin prices were a big loser at the end of Q1, after soaring to a record high in January and posting world-class market gains in Q4, 2024. But April turned out different at the end.

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5 Signals That Show Most Bullish Bitcoin Setup Since 2020

Bitcoin could be poised for a big breakout as more bullish signals are flashing and analysts are drawing comparisons to previous cycles.

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5 Bullish and 2 Bearish Indicators for Bitcoin as BTC Price Approaches ATH Levels

Different market participants are accumulating, but miners are selling - what's next for BTC?

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M2 money supply holds the key for Bitcoins next move Market analyst

The growth of the money supply is historically correlated with previous Bitcoin price bull runs.

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Bitcoins Uptrend Holds Strong as Buyers Push Realized Price Higher

Rising realized price shows investors are buying Bitcoin at higher levels, reinforcing the strength of the current cycle.

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Latest Bitcoin Top Is Different From 2021 Peak, Analyst Explains Why

An analyst has explained why the recent high in Bitcoin has experienced different market conditions than those observed during the 2021 bull run peak. Bitcoin Liquidations Have Been Short-Dominated In Recent Market High In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate pointed out how the latest 2024 high achieved following the spot exchange-traded fund [...]

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Bitcoin 40% Of Way Through Bull Run If This Metric Is To Go By

A pattern in the holdings of the Bitcoin long-term holders may suggest that the current bull run is 40% of the way to completion. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Distributing Recently In a new post on X, Glassnode lead analyst Checkmate discussed the recent behavior of the long-term Bitcoin holders. The long-term holders (LTHs) here [...]

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Bitcoins euphoria phase cools, but a BTC bottom could be near Glassnode

Data suggests that newer investors are behind Bitcoins sell-off, but sell-side exhaustion will eventually mark BTCs price bottom.

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Is The Bitcoin Top Already Here? This Historical Pattern Says So

A historical pattern currently forming in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator could suggest that a top may be near for the asset, if not already in. Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Is Forming A Historical Top Pattern Right Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about a pattern regarding the SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss right now. Related Reading: Ethereum To See Fresh Move Soon? What Futures Data Says When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that profit-selling is dominant in the market currently. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the average holder is moving coins at some net loss. In the context of the current topic, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a different version called the SOPR Ratio. The name may be a bit confusing as SOPR already contains a “ratio,” but the latter ratio here corresponds to the fact that this indicator compares the SOPR of two Bitcoin cohorts: the long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). These investor groups make up for the two main divisions of the BTC market done based on holding time, with 155 days being the cutoff between the two. The STHs are those who bought within the past 155 days, while the LTHs include the HODLers carrying coins for longer than this timespan. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have turned around towards the downside recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin SOPR Ratio had been heading up throughout 2023 and early parts of 2024, but recently, the metric has hit a top and reversed its direction. Whenever the SOPR Ratio is higher than 1, it means the LTHs, who are generally known to be resolute hands, are participating in a higher degree of profit-taking than the STHs. It would appear that as BTC had observed its rally and approached a new all-time high (ATH), these diamond hands had started harvesting some of the gains they had earned over their long holding time. And once the price set a new ATH, these investors participated in peak profit-taking. Since then, their profit-selling has been dropping off, although they are still harvesting notably higher gains than the STHs. In the chart, the analyst highlights how this pattern has been repeated at different points in the asset’s history. While the scale of the peak LTH profit-taking has been heading down over the cycles, it’s still true that the metric’s top has coincided with tops in the price during each of them. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $1: Analyst Thinks Dream Milestone Could Be Hit In Coming Weeks As the line drawn by the quant suggests, it’s possible that the latest peak in the metric may have in fact been the top for this cycle. This is only, however, assuming that the pattern of diminishing returns in the indicator holds to the exact degree judged by the line. It’s possible that the peak will still be higher than the current levels, while at the same time being lower than the previous cycle’s peak, thus still being in-line with the historical Bitcoin pattern. Whatever the case be, though, the fact that the SOPR ratio has apparently hit a top could still be a bearish signal, if only in the short term. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making some steady recovery over the last few days as its price has now surged back above $66,100. Looks like the price of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Watch This Key Price

The Bitcoin price is currently down more than -22% from its all-time, displaying a series of lower highs on the daily timeframe. While the weekly and monthly time bullish, the calls for the beginning of the Bitcoin bear market are growing louder on X. Two prominent analysts have weighed in on what they believe could be the deciding factor for an extended rallyor a deeper downturn. Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy Crypto analyst Charting Guy, posting under the handle @ChartingGuy, shared a chart that places strong emphasis on the $95,000 price point for Bitcoin, noting: yes i will flip back to fully bullish […] for that to happen BTC needs to reclaim and hold $95k, which he has stated many times […] its the level that was prior support for majority of February, then we rejected from it hard on March 2nd and turned it to resistance […] now, with $76.7k on March 11th being the very likely local low, we pull a fib and $95k just happens to perfectly be the 0.618 fib. you cannot make this up. According to his analysis, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracementoften called the golden pocketlooms large as a definitive test of bullish strength. Failing to break above and flip this zone into support, Charting Guy cautions, could lead to an extended bearish phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stays Down, But Whale Wallets Quietly Climb to 4-Month High He further explained that Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), must navigate their respective golden pockets before any real, sustained rally can begin: if crypto and stocks cant reclaim the golden pocket and flip it to support, and end up rejecting there instead, then i am bearish on BTC & stocks for a while. Nevertheless, Charting Guy sees potential for a bull run in April through June: April – June shall be bullish af imo […] BUT that extension into June is only if May is strong and not a sell in May and go away type of month […] what will determine that? how BTC & SPY both react at their respective golden pockets when they get there on this April relief rally. If these technical barriers prove insurmountable, Charting Guy says he will exit his positions: if this purely is just a relief rally and the charts look toppy again when were back at these levels late April/early May, then i will be OUT of this market. Another crypto analyst, @wauwda, has taken a more cautious stance, noting several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500: Every indicator is getting bearish on the HTF for BTC & SPX: Bearish Stochastic RSI cross, Bearish MACD cross, Bearish divergence RSI, MSTR lower high, Altcoins higher high Ultimate Bull Trap. Related Reading: Saylors Strategy Adds $1.9 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin To Growing Portfolio While Wauwda anticipates a relief rallyciting the potential for a bounce due to extreme bearish sentimenthe points out parallels with 2021. He lists a series of events he deems indicative of market-wide euphoria, including high-profile celebrity endorsements, big corporate plays, and meme-driven hype: We didnt have euphoria yet Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is just a tiny part of what I wrote down. Despite acknowledging that this cycles euphoria might look different from previous ones, Wauwda notes that similar warning signs appeared ahead of the 2021 market top. He also points to ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) as factors to watch, though both have shown volatile, oscillating patterns rather than a clear trend: The thing Im struggling with though right now is ETHBTC and BTCD since they both have been up and down only, but maybe that will change with the next leg up. At press time, BTC traded at $84,206. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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