Bitcoin Bearish Signal: ‘Mid-Term’ Holders Show Signs Of Dumping

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin “mid-term” holders have been on the move during the past day, suggesting that they may be dumping currently. Bitcoin 3-6 Months Age Band Shows Large Spike In Spent Outputs As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, an increase in the spent outputs for the 3-6 months group has resulted in big moves for BTC before. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Age Bands,” which tells us which age bands in the Bitcoin market are moving how many coins right now. These “age bands” are groups that define ranges between which the coins (or holders) falling into said band last showed any movement or selling. For instance, the “1m-3m” age band includes all tokens that have been sitting dormant since at least 1 month and at most 3 months ago. If holders belonging to this group shift their coins, then the move will show up as a spike on the spent outputs chart for the band. Related Reading: Litecoin Continues To Slide, Now Below Shiba Inu In Market Cap In the context of the current topic, the relevant age band is the “3m-6m” group. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the spent output metric for it during the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have shot up during the last day | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph displays, the spent output metric has recorded a large value for the 3m-6m Bitcoin age band recently. The holders belonging to this group are sometimes referred to as the “mid-term holders,” because of the fact that their range covers the boundary between the short-term holder and the long-term holder cohorts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Monthly Momentum Reaches Worst On Record From the chart, it’s apparent that generally whenever this holder group has shown signs of heavy dumping, the price of BTC has observed a steep decline shortly after. The latest crash following the collapse of FTX, too, was preceded by a large movement from these investors. After the current spike, Bitcoin has actually already seen a short-term drop, as the below chart shows. However, it’s unclear at the moment whether this decline was all there is going to be. If past examples are anything to go by, Bitcoin usually observes a large move whenever this trend forms, which implies the real decline from the latest spike may be yet to come. A closer look at the price trend following the spike in the indicator | Source: CryptoQuant BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16.8k, down 3% in the last week. Looks like the value of the crypto has been moving sideways since the plunge a few days back | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from mana5280 on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: MPI Records Highest Value Since April 2022

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MPI has surged to its highest value since the April of this year, a sign that may prove to be bearish for the crypto’s price. Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index Has Spiked Up During Past Day As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this instance is the fifth time that the metric has sent a warning signal. The “Miners’ Position Index” (or the MPI in short) is an indicator that measures the ratio between the miner outflows in USD, and the 365-day moving average of the same. Generally, miners transfer coins out of their wallets (that is, make outflow transactions) for selling purposes. Thus, the MPI can tell us whether miners are selling more or less right now compared to their past year average. When the value of this metric is high, it means miners are dumping more than usual currently. On the other hand, low values suggest these chain validators aren’t doing any heavy selling at the moment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Usher In December Near $18,000 If It Moves Past This Resistance Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MPI over the past year and a half: The value of the metric seems to have been pretty high recently | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, whenever the Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index has crossed above a value of 2 during the past year, the price of the crypto has seen a decline shortly after. There have been five such spikes in 2022 so far, the latest of which has only just been recorded in the last 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits $17,000, But Is It Too Early To Call The All Clear On The Bear Market? This current surge has now taken the indicator’s value to the highest level since the spike back in April of this year. When this previous spike was seen, Bitcoin was above $45k, but only a week later the crypto had crashed below $40k. If the latest rise in miner selling also follows the same trend as back in April, then BTC may observe some downtrend in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16.9k, up 3% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 17% in value. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. Looks like the price of the crypto has retreaded below the $17k level again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Bitcoin has surged up in the last few days, but it’s unclear whether this rise will last, given the recent increased selling pressure from the miners. Featured image from Hans-Jurgen Mager on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Enters Sell Zone

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NVT golden cross has now entered into the “sell” zone, something that could be bearish for the price of the crypto. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Surges, Now Has A Value Of 2.44 As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this sell signal might lead to BTC’s price dropping in the next ten days. The “Network Value to Transactions ratio” (NVT ratio) is an indicator that’s defined as the market cap divided by the transacted volume in a specific period. What this metric tells us is how the value of Bitcoin currently compares with the investors’ ability to transact coins, and thus if the crypto is undervalued or overvalued right now. One application of this ratio is through the NVT golden cross, which compares the short-term (10-day moving average) and the long-term (30-day moving average) trends in NVT to indicate tops and bottoms in the crypto’s price. Related Reading: Which Cryptocurrencies To Buy in 2023: Chainlink (LINK), Aave (AAVE), and Orbeon Protocol (ORBN) Historically, the metric’s value being higher than 2.2 has usually been a signal to sell, while it being less than -1.6 has been a bullish sign. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT golden cross over the last year: The value of the metric seems to have sharply gone up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT golden cross has observed some sharp uptrend recently. The indicator now has a value of 2.44, meaning it has exceeded the 2.20 level that has historically implied sell signals. Related Reading: As Stepn (GMT) Decline Continues, BudBlockz (BLUNT) Offers A Better Alternative For Crypto Investors During late May, the metric saw a similar surge and rose to a peak value of 2.77. When the following month rolled around, BTC went through a huge crash from $30k to $20k. Since the crypto is once again overpriced according to the NVT golden cross, it’s possible the coin may go through more drawdown in the coming days. However, as the metric’s value is still lower than what it was at the high preceding the June crash, there might be potential for it to rise further, before the actual sell signal is in. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16.8k, up 2% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 19% in value. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. Looks like the value of the crypto has shot up during the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Mark Basarab on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Supply Older Than 7 Years On The Move

On-chain data shows a large amount of Bitcoin supply dormant for more than 7 years ago has moved recently, a sign that may be bearish for the price. Bitcoin Supply Aged Between 7 And 10 Years Old Has Been Transferred Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the movement of such [...]

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Exchanges Observe Growing Reserves

On-chain data shows exchanges have been observing recent growth in their Bitcoin reserves, a sign that selling pressure may be increasing. All Exchanges Observe Growing Bitcoin Reserves, Except For Coinbase As an analyst in a CryptoQuant post pointed out, only Coinbase has seen some withdrawals recently. The relevant indicator here is the “exchange reserve,” which [...]

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Miners Sell At 3rd Largest Scale Ever

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin miners may have been selling at a historical rate recently, something that could be bearish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin Miner Inflow To Exchanges Has Registered A Spike Recently According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, miner exchange inflows hit a peak value of $70 million recently. The “miner inflow to exchanges” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin that miners are transferring to the wallets of all centralized exchanges. When the value of this metric is high, it means the miners are sending a large number of coins to these platforms currently. Generally, these chain validators deposit their BTC to exchanges for selling-related purposes, so this kind of trend can have a bearish effect on the value of the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, low values suggest the selling pressure coming from the miners may be low right now, as this cohort isn’t depositing any significant amounts to exchanges at the moment. Related Reading: Tether (USDT) Sharks & Whales Rapidly Accumulate, Why This Is Bullish For Bitcoin Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner inflow to exchanges over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been quite high in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin miner inflow to exchanges has observed a spike in its value recently. This suggests that miners have been sending rather large amounts to these platforms during the past couple of weeks. Related Reading: Here’s How Current Bitcoin Capitulation Compares With Past Crashes These high values of the indicator have come as the cryptocurrency has been gradually heading downwards. This may imply that the recent market environment has made some of the miners panic sell their holdings. Since these inflows have become elevated, the asset’s value has only extended its decline further, as it has now dropped below the $26,000 level. This recent decline in the price may be fueled in part by the dumping being done by this cohort. From the chart, it’s visible that the peak of these inflows observed on 3rd June saw the indicator reach a value of around $70.8 million. This is a historically extraordinary level for the metric as only two trading days in the entire lifetime of the coin have seen the miners depositing at a larger scale. Both of the instances where miners sent larger amounts to these platforms took place way back during early 2021, when the bull market was in full flow. The peak inflow spike back then (that is, the largest value the metric has ever recorded) measured to about $101 million, implying that the current surge is about $30.2 million away from it. Naturally, Bitcoin miners selling at such a high rate recently can be bad news for the market. It now remains to be seen whether these chain validators continue to sell more in the near future, or if they are done with their dumping spree for now. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $25,900, down 3% in the last week. BTC looks to have declined in the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Brian Wangenheim on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Dormant 1,433 BTC Moves After 10+ Years

On-chain data shows a large amount of Bitcoin older than 10 years has suddenly moved today, a sign that could be bearish for the price. Bitcoin Dormant From More Than 10 Years Ago Has Abruptly Moved As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this movement of dormant coins may be a sign [...]

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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Miners Continue To Sell

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin miners have continued to sell recently, a sign that can be bearish for the price of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Been Going Down Since Rally Started As an analyst in a CryptoQuant post pointed out, BTC miners have continued to shave coins off their reserve recently. The “miner [...]

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