May 02, 2025 12:10
Research house and exchange-traded-product issuer 21Shares is arguing that Dogecoin has matured into a smart addition to your portfolio, projecting a bull-market price target of $1.42 per coin if bullish momentum holds. In a post published on X on 30 April, the firm told its followers that Dogecoin isnt just a meme anymoreit might be a smart addition to your portfolio. Linking to a research note, 21Shares detailed stress-tested portfolio simulations in which a traditional 60/40 basket of equities and bonds is first infused with 3 % Bitcoin and then supplemented with a modest 1 % DOGE allocation. According to the researchers, the benchmark returned 7.25 % annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95 %. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, while the worst peak-to-trough drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points. Related Reading: What Will Send Dogecoin Soaring? Analyst Reveals The Key Drivers The study attributes the incremental performance to Dogecoins decade-long record of outpacing most large-cap crypto-assets while maintaining a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. Even so, the authors stress that disciplined rebalancing remains vital. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds, they warn, adding that monthly or weekly rebalancing strikes the best compromise between upside capture and volatility control, particularly during periods of broader market stress, as weve recently seen. Three Scenarios For Dogecoin To frame expectations for the coming cycle, 21Shares sets out three scenarios: In the bear case, Dogecoins post-election rally is described as potentially having front-run its true cycle potential. If the token merely compounds at 10 % per year from its 2021 peak of $0.73, it would land around $0.38 by 2025, a doubling from todays $0.18 but, for the first time, a failure to record a new all-time high within a full market cycle. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could Rally To $0.74 ATH If Price Closes Month Above This Level, Analyst Says The neutral case assumes the total crypto-asset market capitalizes at $5 trillion and DOGEs market share slips from 4 % to 3 %. On those inputs, Dogecoin would be worth roughly $150 billion and trade near $1 per coin, about a 5.5-fold gain from current levels, with the token retaining its stature as the leading memecoin amid stiffer competition. The bullish projection scales the tokens compounded growth between the pre-2021 bottom of $0.007 and the current-cycle trough of $0.0585, a rate calculated at 189 % per year. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, the paper concludes, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42. Such an outcome would require a revival of memecoin mania, tangible real-world use cases and, critically, deeper integration with major consumer platforms such as Elon Musks X. In that environment, the authors write, a full-throated return of retail exuberance could re-establish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high. 21Shares finishes on a pragmatic note: With the right structure, a 1 % allocation to Dogecoin isnt recklessits rewarding. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.175. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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