Crypto Technical Analysis Report 2nd May 2025
Crypto traders have long hoped for a clear decoupling between digital assets and traditional markets like the S&P 500. While recent intraday price movements suggest that Bitcoin and major altcoins continue to mirror equities particularly amid escalating trade war tensions the broader picture tells a different story. Over the past month, the crypto market has quietly outpaced traditional stocks. Since March, total crypto market capitalization has climbed 8.5%, while the S&P 500 has dropped by 5.3%. Zooming out further, the contrast becomes even sharper: in the past six months, crypto markets have surged 29%, whereas the S&P 500 has shed 2%. This growing divergence highlights that, despite short-term correlations, crypto is increasingly carving out its own path suggesting that long-term investors may already be viewing digital assets through a fundamentally different lens than traditional risk assets.
Bitcoin soared to a new quarterly high of $96,700 on May 1, marking a strong bullish continuation as macroeconomic pressures intensified. This surge followed news that U.S. GDP contracted by -0.3% its first quarterly decline since Q2 2022 raising investor concerns over the broader economic outlook. As a result, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the June 18 meeting climbed sharply to 62.8%. Adding to the momentum, over $137 million in short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, signaling strong upside pressure. Bitcoin has recently followed a repeating breakout pattern climbing 13%, consolidating, and then breaking higher again pushing it into the $93,000$96,000 range. Institutional interest continues to play a pivotal role. Between April 2125 alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $3 billion in inflows as risk-averse investors turned to BTC as a hedge against uncertainty. As of May 1, institutional funds and Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold around $128 billion in BTC, based on data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET. Another $73 billion sits on corporate treasuries. Interestingly, sovereign states such as the U.S., China, and the U.K. also collectively hold over $130 billion worth of BTC. However, most of these holdings stem from seized crypto assets, not direct market purchases. This growing pool of institutional and state-linked Bitcoin underscores its rising status as a macro-hedging asset in an increasingly volatile global financial system.
Ether (ETH) has been stuck below the $1,900 mark since March, sparking concerns among investors about its long-term momentum especially after its failed attempt to reclaim the $4,000 level in December 2024. That rally, once seen as a possible return to form, now looks more like a local top, leaving market participants wondering whether Ethereums golden era is behind it. Derivatives data paints a cautious picture. ETH monthly futures are expected to trade at a 5%+ premium over spot prices due to the delayed settlement period, but this premium has remained unusually subdued suggesting that even institutional and professional traders are hesitant to place bullish bets on ETH in the short term. One factor dampening sentiment is the U.S. governments stance. In a move that rattled altcoin markets, Ether was grouped with other non-Bitcoin crypto assets under the Digital Asset Stockpile Executive Order issued on March 6. While Bitcoin was singled out for strategic reserves, altcoins although allowed to be retained if already held were excluded from future acquisitions, which many read as a signal of second-tier status in Washingtons view. However, the upcoming Pectra network upgrade on May 7 could be a turning point. This long-awaited update aims to enhance Ethereums performance and reduce network friction especially in validator operations and smart contract execution. If successful, it could reignite investor interest, particularly among institutions.
Institutional-grade staking enhancements could also be a game-changer. If more ETH is locked into validator nodes post-upgrade, the reduced circulating supply may provide upward pressure on price. Historically, major Ethereum upgrades like the Merge or Shanghai have often led to temporary price spikes. Investors will be watching closely to see if Pectra follows the same pattern, potentially marking a fresh chapter for ETH. Recent reports from Chinese state media indicate that the U.S. has begun low-key trade negotiations with China, hinting at a gradual thaw in economic tensions. While China still enforces a 125% retaliatory tariff on U.S. imports, it has quietly issued exemptions for key sectors like ethane, semiconductors, and specific pharmaceuticals. In response, the U.S. has eased some of its new tariff restrictions, particularly for the automotive sector. These incremental moves suggest both nations are exploring a path toward de-escalation.
Markets have responded favorably to this shift, bolstered further by strong Q1 corporate earnings. Many companies have adapted by reshaping their supply chains either by relocating production out of China or scaling up domestic operations to offset tariff costs. Tech giants are leading the charge: Microsoft posted a 13.2% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by margin growth and robust demand for AI solutions. Meta also outperformed expectations in both earnings and revenue, helping calm investor fears of an AI investment bubble or a slowdown in tech expansion due to trade war uncertainty. Overall, these developments point to growing resilience in the corporate sector, even amid complex geopolitical dynamics.
Technical Outlook
BTC
BTC, after correcting almost 32% from the all-time high, made a Long-Legged Spinning Top candle near the key support level of $73,500 and witnessed a recovery. Post this move, the asset started consolidating near the downsloping trendline. However, BTC finally gave a breakout above the trendline and the resistance level of $90,000 and rallied up to $97,424. The asset has strong resistance at $100,000 and $110,000, whereas $90,000 will now act as a strong support.
ETH
ETH was trading in a Descending Channel pattern and plunged almost 65% from $4,108 to $1,385. The bulls, however, defended the key support level of $1,350, and the price bounced almost 32%, making the recent high of $1,857. Post this move, the asset is consolidating and is trading in a narrow range from $1,750 to $1,840 with declining volumes. To further rally, ETH has to break, close, and sustain above $1,850 with good volumes. Once it does that, then we may expect it to further rally up to $2,150.
SOL
SOL, after making the all-time high of $295.8, witnessed a massive fall. The prices plunged almost 67.5% and made a low of $95.26. The asset has made a Long-Legged Doji candle at the low, which indicates indecision in trend. SOL has strong resistance at $155. Once it breaks and closes above the resistance with good volumes, then we can expect it to rally further and test $175, whereas $120 and $95 will act as strong support levels for the asset.
Weekly Snapshot
| USD ($) | 24 Apr 25 | 01 May 25 | Previous Week | Current Week | |||
| Close | Close | % Change | High | Low | High | Low | |
| BTC | $93,944 | $96,492 | 2.71% | $94,536 | $83,977 | $97,438 | $92,861 |
| ETH | $1,770 | $1,839 | 3.91% | $1,830 | $1,542 | $1,873 | $1,736 |
| SOL | $152.30 | $150.85 | -0.95% | $153.87 | $132.59 | $156.05 | $140.71 |
| Crypto | 1w % Vol. Change (Global) |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | -8.04% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 3.99% |
| Solana (SOL) | -13.65% |
| Resistance 2 | $110,000 | $2,150 | $175 | $691 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $100,000 | $1,850 | $155 | $650 |
| USD | BTC | ETH | SOL | BNB |
| Support 1 | $90,000 | $1,500 | $120 | $550 |
| Support 2 | $73,500 | $1,350 | $95 | $500 |
Market Updates:
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altmans crypto-tied digital identity project World, formerly Worldcoin, said on April 30 that it will make its U.S. debut, first coming to the so-called key innovation hubs of Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, and San Francisco.
- The U.S. Treasury Department wants to block the Cambodia-based Huione Group from accessing the U.S. banking system, accusing it of helping North Koreas state-backed Lazarus Group to launder its crypto.
- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has filed to drop another of its crypto lawsuits, this time its unregistered securities sales case against crypto influencer and YouTuber Ian Balina.
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