Bitcoin Is Up 2X But Speculators Are Underwater: Will The Sell-off Continue?

Bitcoin is down at press time, wiping the weekend’s gains and inching closer to $60,000. If bears press on, increasing their shorts, the odds of the coin sliding below the psychological number and $56,800 remain high. Glassnode: STHs Are In Red As the world’s most valuable coin finds itself at a critical juncture, fast approaching [...]

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Bitcoin Local Bottom In? Analyst Offers Insights

In an ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency markets, deciding the bottom of Bitcoin price correction is an endeavor that attracts interest from both investors and analysts. Joining the fray is cryptocurrency analyst and trader MilkyBull offering insights on the subject, claiming that Bitcoin’s local bottom has developed due to a certain development. Following its weekend recovery out of bear market territory, the price of Bitcoin slightly decreased on Monday. However, MilkyBull is confident that the recent retracement might be the last before BTC turns to move on the upside. Bitcoin Local Bottom Is In According to the expert, given that the next liquidity grab interest is above $64,557, the local bottom for Bitcoin is in. As a result, before moving on to the current all-time high of $73,000, BTC will first clear the $67,000 price level and consolidate. Thus, Bitcoin may eliminate the CME gap below either prior to or subsequent to eliminating the liquidity above $64,975. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom In? Retracement From $73,800 Is Deeper And Took Longer To Form The CME gap is a price difference that occurs between the Friday closing price and Sunday opening prices of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market. Therefore, the expert considers this development a good area for long trade, signaling a buying opportunity for BTC bullish investors. MilkyBull further drew attention to a previous analysis that suggests Bitcoin could be poised for a rally due to historical patterns. The analyst noted that the 2017 price action shows that when BTC breached a new all-time high, there was a healthy retracement that was driven by liquidity before it surged to a cycle peak.  Given that BTC might be mirroring this pattern, MilkyBull’s analysis might suggest that BTC has undergone its last shakeout, and a move on the upside could be imminent. He also confirmed that the present consolidation range was paralleled by the preceding consolidation, which began to materialize from December 2023 to February 2024.  This pattern, identified as a manipulative strategy of the market makers (MMs) by the expert, is meant to remove degenerate Short-Term Holders (STHs), which are particularly vulnerable to price corrections below their cost base. BTC Correction On The Horizon While MilkyBull anticipates a rally, market expert Benjamin Cowen expects the leading cryptocurrency asset to drop in the upcoming days. Last week, Cowen claimed BTC’s Return On Investment (ROI) 12 days after the Bitcoin Halving event was the worst performance that the asset has experienced. According to Cowen, this is reasonable as it is the first time BTC is reaching a new all-time high before the Halving. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Has Found Its Local Bottom But Can It Hold This Level? Almost a week later, there is still no improvement, as the analyst noted that BTC ROI is still performing worse than in previous cycles. Comparing this action with that of 2016, Cowen expects BTC to undergo a decline in the coming week. During the time of writing, BTC was trading at $63,970, demonstrating an increase of over 3% in the past week. While its market cap is down by 1.17%, its daily trading volume has garnered positive sentiment, rising by 40%. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoins MVRV ratio shows LTHs move the market while STHs react

The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is one of the most important indicators for analyzing the Bitcoin market. It measures the ratio between the market cap (the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the total number of coins in circulation) and the realized cap (the sum of the value of all coins in […]

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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Panic Capitulate $2.6 Billion In BTC Crash

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders have panic sold $2.6 billion worth of coins in the crash following the new all-time high. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Sent Huge Volume In Loss To Exchanges As analyst James V. Straten explained in a new post on X, Bitcoin short-term holders have shown signs of capitulation during the latest drop in the cryptocurrency’s price. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. The STHs make up one of the two main divisions of the market, the other one being the “long-term holders” (LTHs). Related Reading: Solana Open Interest Plunges 20%: What It Means For Price Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell at any point. This means that the STHs, who are relatively new hands, generally sell quickly whenever an asset crash or rally occurs. The LTHs, on the other hand, usually show resilience, only selling at specific points. One way to track whether either of these groups is selling is through the transfer volume they are sending to exchanges. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin exchange inflow volume precisely for the STHs in loss: The value of the metric appears to have shot up in recent days | Source: @jvs_btc on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STHs have transferred around $2.6 billion worth of coins in loss to exchanges in the past day, implying that some members of this cohort have capitulated. This spike is huge, but it’s less than the loss-taking event that took place back during the price drawdown that followed the BTC spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. These loss sellers would be those who FOMO’d into the rally that took BTC to a new all-time high beyond the $69,000 level, but their conviction wasn’t strong enough that they were able to hold past the sharp crash that BTC observed shortly after. The STHs aren’t the only ones who have exited the market in this latest price volatility; it would appear that the LTHs have also done some selling. The difference, however, is that these HODLers have made profits. The chart below shows how the exchange transfer volume for the LTHs in profit has looked like recently. Looks like the value of the metric has registered a sharp spike recently | Source: jvs_btc on X The graph shows that the Bitcoin LTHs have participated in their largest profit-taking event since July 2021, transferring tokens worth $1.5 billion to exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sets New All-Time High Above $69,000 As Institutionals Show FOMO Thus, it would appear that this recent volatility has shaken up the conviction of even some of the diamond hands, although these HODLers have at least still been rewarded with profits. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around the $65,800 mark, up 8% in the past week. BTC has gone through a rollercoaster in the past couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from cdd20 on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin STH Realized Profit Reveals Strong Support Level Time For A Breakout?

Bitcoins short-term price direction remains uncertain as the market struggles to confirm its next move. Analysts and investors are divided, with some calling for a breakout into new all-time highs while others anticipate renewed selling pressure into lower prices. The price has been consolidating in a narrow range for the past twelve days, holding above the $94,000 demand level and facing resistance below the $100,000 mark. Related Reading: Are Meme Coins Hurting Solana? Rising Selling Pressure Sparks Investor Concerns Key data from CryptoQuant reveals that the nearest support zone for BTC is forming between $91,000 and $95,000. This range is reinforced by two critical technical indicators: the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111D), currently at $95,000, and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which sits at $91,000. These levels suggest that BTC is trading above historically significant support areas, where short-term holders have realized their profits or losses. While the long-term structure remains bullish, investors are growing impatient as BTC fails to reclaim key resistance levels. If Bitcoin can push above $100K in the coming days, analysts expect a rally into price discovery. However, losing support around $94K$95K could trigger increased selling pressure and a deeper correction into lower demand zones. Bitcoin Prepares For A Decisive Move Bitcoins recent consolidation phase has fueled speculation about a potential breakout, with many analysts suggesting that the market is witnessing the calm before the storm. While short-term direction remains uncertain, the long-term bullish structure remains intact, and many expect BTC to make a strong move toward new all-time highs soon. Crypto analyst Axel Adler shared key CryptoQuant data on X, highlighting that Bitcoin’s nearest support zone is forming around $91,000$95,000. This range is significant because it aligns with the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111D) at $95,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price at $91,000. These levels represent areas where short-term holders have historically realized profits or losses, making them crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. On the resistance side, Adler notes that Bitcoin faces a key supply zone between $98,000 and $101,000. This area is defined by the aggregate exit prices of holders with a holding period of one week to one month at $100,800 and those with a one- to three-month holding period at $98,200. Related Reading: Ethereum Forms A Bullish Pattern Expert Reveals Short-Term Price Target As BTC continues to trade within this narrow range, investors are closely watching these levels for a decisive breakout. A push above $101K could trigger a rally into price discovery. While losing support at $91K could lead to further downside. BTC Bulls Face A Big Test Bitcoin is trading at $95,600 after nearly two weeks of sideways movement within a narrow range, fluctuating less than 4% in either direction. This extended period of consolidation has left traders on edge, as they await a decisive move in either direction. For BTC to maintain its bullish structure, the $95,000 level must hold. This price point aligns with technical support, and a break below it could signal strong selling pressure. Bulls face a critical test at this stage, as they must defend this support and initiate a push above key resistance levels. To confirm a breakout, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $98,000 mark and, ultimately, the psychologically significant $100,000 level. A successful move above these levels would provide the momentum needed to challenge all-time highs and re-enter price discovery. However, failure to hold $95K could trigger a downside move, with BTC potentially testing support zones closer to $91K. Related Reading: Dogecoin Pulls Back To The Golden Ratio Analyst Expects A Bullish Reversal As Bitcoin consolidates, traders remain cautious, watching for volume spikes and increased buying pressure to confirm the next price movement. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether BTC resumes its uptrend or faces further correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Just Locked In $647 Million In Profits

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin short-term holders have recently participated in a massive $647 million profit-taking event. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Realized Large Net Profits Recently According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the short-term holders have given a strong reaction to the $52,000 break. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell at any point. The STHs have a relatively low holding time, so they easily sell during price rallies or crashes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Signal That Has Held Since December Says Its Time To Sell On the other hand, the “long-term holders” (LTHs), which make up the rest of the userbase (that is, those withholding time greater than 155 days), tend to carry a strong resolve. Since the STHs are fickle-minded, it’s not surprising that they have made some selling moves after the latest rally in the asset. One way to gauge the reaction of this cohort is through the “Net Realized Profit/Loss” metric. This indicator keeps track of the net profit or loss the investors realize across the network. The metric finds this value by going through the on-chain history of each coin being transferred right now to check the price it was moved at before. Assuming that a change of hands occurred in the previous transfer and that another such change is happening with the current one, then the coin’s sale would realize a profit or loss equal to the difference between the two prices. The Net Realized Profit/Loss sums up all such profits and losses and outputs the net value. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator specifically for the Bitcoin STHs over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been significantly positive in recent days | Source: Glassnode on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Net Realized Profit/Loss has spiked to highly positive levels recently, implying that these investors’ profits have significantly outweighed the losses. This cohort has realized $647 million in net profits during this latest selling spree. The chart shows that the last time the indicator was at higher positive values was back around the formation of the 2021 all-time high. Related Reading: These Are The Altcoins Drawing Whale Interest, Santiment Reveals The current values aren’t off this mark, but the STH Net Realized Profit/Loss levels that hit back during the first half of the 2021 bull run are still far away. For perspective, the peak in the metric achieved back then was $2.5 billion, which remains the all-time high for the indicator. BTC Price Since the rapid surge above $52,000, Bitcoin has calmed down slightly, as it has moved sideways in the past few days. At present, BTC is trading at around $52,500. The price of the asset seems to have slowed down in the last two days or so | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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