Analyst Utilizes Supply And Demand Principles To Determine Bitcoin Price

For analysts and investors alike, comprehending the variables that influence price action in the complex world of cryptocurrency markets is essential. Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency expert, has recently provided insights into the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin by applying the basic economic theory of supply and demand.  Understanding Bitcoin Prices Through Supply And Demand It is worth noting that any asset’s price movement, including cryptocurrencies, is determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. An asset’s price tends to decrease when supply outpaces demand, while prices typically increase when supply cannot keep up with demand.  Related Reading: The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data Thus, Ali Martinez has deduced the crypto asset’s price and holders’ behaviour by applying the method and other on-chain metrics. Martinez’s analysis demonstrates how fluctuations in the market’s buying interest and the availability of Bitcoin are key factors influencing its price trajectory. According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap witnessed a significant increase mid-way through March when BTC hit a new all-time high of $73,000. This indicated that the majority of BTC’s long-term holders were likely yielding gains at the time. As a result, several investors sold their holdings, which led to a sharp rise in realized profits. Following realized profits in March, long-term holders felt safe adding over 70,000 BTC to their investments at these prices. Meanwhile, when the market’s growing supply of Bitcoin exceeded demand, the coin saw a substantial correction from the $73,000 level to the $57,000 level.  Given that short-term holders are more likely to sell their holdings due to price volatility, this decline took Bitcoin below its realized price for short-term holders, inciting fear in the market. However, despite investors’ concerns, the short-term holder’s Realized Price at the $65,500 level acted as an accumulation point. On the basis of this principle, Martinez believes the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing its upward trajectory will only increase when demand for the cryptocurrency starts to exceed the supply of BTC accessible in the market. Using BTC On Exchanges To Support The Principles Martinez has underscored that the available BTC on crypto exchanges can be used to confirm these supply and demand laws. He further noted that over 30,000 BTC have been moved to private wallets for long-term storage in May, indicating confidence among holders in the potential worth of Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulating Like In 2021: Is BTC Ready For A 15X? Observing Bitcoin’s price using the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, Martinez cited a retracement above the +0.5 pricing band at $64,600. Such an upswing has historically caused BTC to test the pricing range of 1.0, which is backed by increasing demand. Meanwhile, this price range at the moment is roughly lingering at $77,000. Presently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $66,275, indicating an over 5% increase in the past week. Although prices are up, its trading volume has declined by 24%, while its market cap is up by 0.23%. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000

Crypto analyst Melika Trader has warned of a volume drop that could trigger a 60% Bitcoin price crash. The analyst provided an in-depth analysis of what this price crash could mean and if it would mark the end of the bull run.  How The Bitcoin Price Could Crash By 60% And Drop To $49,000 In a TradingView post, Melika Trader revealed how the Bitcoin price could crash by 60% and drop to $49,000. The analyst noted that BTC is hanging just above a critical support zone, an area he claimed many traders recognize as the most important support level from a volume perspective on Binance.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Has Entered The Ideal Buy Zone, Heres Why His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could suffer a 60% drop once it loses the former trend line at $75,000. The flagship crypto is also in danger, having lost the critical support at around $83,000. This drop to $49,000 would bring BTC back toward the high-volume range near $30,000.  This provides an ultra-bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, Melika Trader raised a twist, stating that only 20% of traders might actually lose. He noted that, according to Binances volume profile data, the majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.  The analyst further mentioned that most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022/2023 accumulation range. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) is also said to show significant support below the current Bitcoin price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels. Melika Trader remarked that only a minority of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70,000.  Meanwhile, the majority of investors are still in profit or break-even, even if the Bitcoin price retraces back to its base. As such, most traders are safe, as BTC risks a drop to as low as $49,000.  Why BTCs Bull Market Is Over CryptoQuants CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently asserted that BTCs bull market is over amid the Bitcoin price decline. He alluded to the Realized Cap metric to explain his confidence that the bull run is over. The CryptoQuant CEO noted that if Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in but prices arent rising.  Related Reading: Why Buying Bitcoin Now Is Better Than Later As BTC Price Consolidates Within Falling Wedge Ki Young Ju noted that this is a clear bearish signal, and this is what is currently happening. Capital is entering the market right now, but the Bitcoin price isnt responding, which he claims is typical of a bear market. The CryptoQuant CEO explained that even large purchases like MicroStrategys arent pushing prices up because there is too much sell pressure at the moment.  Ki Young Ju again affirmed that current data points to the Bitcoin price being in a bear market. He noted that sell pressure could ease anytime but warned that historically, real reversals take at least six months. As such, the CryptoQuant CEO believes a short-term rally seems unlikely.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoins Hot Capital Hits Multi-Month Peak at $39.1B: Glassnode

Bitcoin's hot capital increase to $39.1 billion marks a 92% rise in short-term activity and is proof of renewed interest. Most BTC holders remain in profit.

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Bitcoins realized profit hits ATH but market keeps accumulating

Realized profit represents the cumulative profit of all Bitcoins moved on-chain, calculated as the difference between the acquisition and movement prices. It’s a direct measure of the profitability for Bitcoin holders, indicating when investors are likely to sell and take profits. On the other hand, the realized cap offers a more accurate representation of the […]

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2022 realized cap drawdown was second worst in Bitcoin’s history

Analyzing Bitcoin’s market cap shows that the 2022 bear market brought the fourth worse drawdown from the all-time high in its history.

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Bitcoin Now Under Realized Price For 163 Days, Here’s How This Compares Historically

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has now been below its realized price for 163 days in this bear market; here’s how this compares with previous cycles. Bitcoin Realized Price Is Currently Valued At Around $19,900 According to CryptoQuant’s year-end dashboard release, the bear market would be over if BTC reclaims this level. To understand what the “realized price” is, the “realized cap” must be looked at first. The realized cap is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that aims to provide a sort of “real value” for the crypto. Unlike the usual market cap, which simply values each coin in circulation using the current BTC price, the realized cap prices each token at the same price it was last moved. For example, if 1 BTC was bought at $20,000, but the price has now changed to $16,000, the market cap will consider it valued at $16,000. The realized cap, however, will say its true value is $20,000. Now, if the total realized cap of Bitcoin is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, a “realized price” is obtained. This price signifies the cost-basis of the average coin in the market (that is, the price at which investors acquired the average coin at). Here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC realized price over the entire history of the asset: The BTC price seems to have been below this metric in recent months | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph displays, the normal price of Bitcoin has been below the realized price for a while now. Historically, BTC has spent very little time in this region, as only the worst phases of a bear market usually pull the coin below the level. From the chart, it’s apparent that In the 2011-2012 bear market, BTC spent 158 days under the realized price. Then, in 2014-2015, the coin spent a whopping 276 days in this zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Interexchange Flow Pulse About To Reverse, What Does It Mean? The 2018-2019 bear saw the shortest amount of time in the region, as the price took 134 days to pull itself above the level. Finally, Bitcoin has been trapped under the realized price for 163 days in the current cycle. This means that BTC has spent more time in this region in the current bear market than in any other before, except for 2014-2015. If the current bear is comparable to 2014-2015, then it would mean there is still more than 100 days to go before Bitcoin can exit the zone. Related Reading: Litecoin Bullish Signal: Shark And Whale Addresses Hit 2-Year High Either way, CryptoQuant expects the crypto to reclaim this level somewhere in 2023, and it will be then that this bear may be considered to be over. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,600, down 1% in the last week. BTC has declined in the last two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Top 5 Watershed Moments In BTC On-Chain Analysis’ History. Is Your Favorite In?

These five moments shaped Bitcoin On-Chain analysis. Down below you’ll find a basic 101 article that reviews the basic concepts of the trade. If you have any problem with the list, David Puell is to blame. He’s a full-time on-chain analyst and the creator of MVRV and Puell Multiple. He didn’t include the metrics he created on the list, which says a lot. Related Reading | Lessons From Reason’s “The Fake Environmentalist Attack on Bitcoin” Mini-Doc In the following article, there’s also something for on-chain analysis experts. A side game called: Did your favorite moment make it?  1. ByteCoin invents cointime destroyed in 2011, the very first on-chain metric ever, still used today, and first metric to detect holding behavior in any financial asset. — David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022 Anyway, let’s get into it. On-Chain Analysis Moment #1- ByteCoin Invents Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) AKA Coin Time Destroyed Invented In 2011, according to Puell, CDD is “the very first on-chain metric ever, still used today, and first metric to detect holding behavior in any financial asset.” How does the metric detect holders, though? According to Glassnode Academy, “Coin Days Destroyed is a measure of economic activity which gives more weight to coins which haven’t been spent for a long time.” So, the first eureka moment was to get the coin’s age into the equation. That way, the all-important holders also entered. Glassnode again: “It is considered an important alternative to looking at total transaction volumes, which may not accurately represent economic activity if value was not stored for a meaningful time. Conversely, coins held in cold storage as a long term store of value are considered economically important when they are spent as it signals a notable change in long-term holder behaviour.” BTC price chart for 02/17/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com 2. Moment #2 – Willy Woo and Chris Burniske Invent NVT Ratio  This one emerged in 2017, and, according to Puell, it’s “where on-chain begins its Golden Age and became clearly an ecosystem of specialists”. It’s also “the first application of traditional economic/financial concepts to Bitcoin”. But, what’s the NVT Ratio specifically? Glassnode Academy responds: “Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volume. Per Willy Woo, its creator, NVT can be considered analogous to the PE (price to earnings) Ratio used in equity markets.” Another way to look at it is, “NVT is that it is the inverse of monetary velocity, comparing two of Bitcoin’s primary value propositions”. Those are store of value Vs. settlement/payments network. 3. @nic__carter and @khannib invent realized cap in 2018, the single most important and robust metric in the field, and first verifiable discovery of the cost basis of any asset. — David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022 On-Chain Analysis Moment #3 – Nic Carter And Antoine Le Calvez Invent Realized Capitalization Created In 2018, Puell thinks Realized Capitalization is “ the single most important and robust metric in the field, and first verifiable discovery of the cost basis of any asset”. But, what is it exactly? According to Glassnode Academy, Realized Capitalization also makes on-chain analysis look into the age of the coins. “Realized capitalization (realized cap) is a variation of market capitalization that values each UTXO based on the price when it was last moved, as opposed to its current value. As such, it represents the realized value of all the coins in the network, as opposed to their market value.” Ok, “realized cap reduces the impact of lost and long dormant coins, and weights coins according to their actual presence in the economy of a given chain”. How does it do it, though? Glassnode again: “When a coin that was last moved at significantly cheaper prices is spent, it will re-value the coins to the current price, and thus increase realized cap by a corresponding amount. Similarly, if a coin is spent at a price lower than when it was last moved, it will re-value to a cheaper price and have a corresponding decrease on realized cap.” Moment #4 – Dhruv Bansal Invents HODL Waves  Created in 2018, HODL Waves is the “last major primer in on-chain analysis, first metric to segregate supply into different conceptual frameworks”. According to Purell, it’s also the “most comprehensive economic time analysis on Bitcoin to date”. Surprising no one, HODL Waves also looks at the age of the coins. According to Glassnode Academy: “HODL Waves provide a macro view of the age of coins as a proportion of total coin supply. This provides a gauge on the balance between short term and long term holdings. It can also indicate where changes in this age distribution occur as the thickness of HODL wave bands change in response to dormant coins maturing, or when old coins are spent, resetting their age into the youngest category.” 5. @ErgoBTC releases the forensics of PlusToken in 2019, the grey swan that defined the market structure of Bitcoin for that year and first relevant nation-state attack on the asset. — David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022 On-Chain Analysis Moment #5 – Ergo Releases The Forensics Of PlusToken This famous case happened in 2019. According to Purell, it’s “the grey swan that defined the market structure of Bitcoin for that year and first relevant nation-state attack on the asset.” For a report on the situation, we had to consult Crypto Briefing, who spoke to: “Ergo, the lead researcher of the report, told Crypto Briefing in an email that the most striking feature of this scam was its size. “Billion-dollar scams are very rare,” they said. “We did not expect the previously reported 200K BTC volumes to be accurate, but they were.” Related Reading | Bitcoin On-Chain Demands Suggests That The Market Has Reached Its Bottom The Ergo team also explained why the laundry of the funds didn’t work that well. It was because they practiced “self-shuffling.” What’s that, you ask? Crypto Briefing again:  “It refers to the “repeated UTXO splitting and merging in hundreds of transactions,” according to the report. This method was both easy to track and the most common way in which PlusToken funds were handled.” This case wouldn’t be complete without a big institution’s involvement. This time, the suspect is Huobi: “Huobi played a major role in off-loading these funds too, with nearly 250,000 addresses associated with the PlusToken funds. These addresses were reduced to two clusters which were identified following the incompetent privacy standards.” Of course, those are just suppositions. When it comes to the giant Huobi, nothing’s been proven. Feature Image by analogicus on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

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Ethereum Layer 2 Continues to Gain Steam as ETH Realized Capitalization Soars

Ethereum layer 2 seeks to address the challenge of scalability, given that it’s a distinct network running on top of Ethereum Mainnet (layer 1). (Read More)

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Ethereum Miner Balances Hit a 50-Month High as ETH Leads in NFT Sales

Ethereum (ETH) miners have seen their holdings go through the roof to the tune of $1.85 billion. (Read More)

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Bitcoin Realized Capitalization Hits ATH Amid the Fear and Greed Index, Jumping to Neutral Grounds

Bitcoin realized capitalization has been on an upward trajectory after hitting a record high. (Read More)

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Record high realized cap shows unprecedented economic investment in Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s realized cap is a nuanced and innovative metric for assessing the valuation of Bitcoin that differs significantly from traditional market capitalization. Unlike the market cap, which simply multiplies the current market price of Bitcoin by the total number of coins in circulation, the realized cap offers a more granular and economically meaningful insight into […]

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Why did Bitcoins market cap surge by over $102 billion while realized cap only grew by $4 billion?

Bitcoin’s price saw a significant increase in February, jumping from $43,049 at the beginning of the month to $49,900 on Feb. 12, as of press time. Crossing $49,000 marks a significant milestone for BTC, as it indicates the potential to breach the $50,000 resistance and move closer to its all-time high. Alongside its price surge, […]

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Solana Struggles Against Bitcoin & Ethereum: Glassnode Explains Why

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed the reason why Solana (SOL) has recently been lagging behind Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Solana Realized Cap Growth Has Slowed Down Recently In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about how the recent performance of Solana has stacked up against the two largest coins in [...]

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Bitcoin Realized Cap At All-Time High As Price Hits $77,000 For The First Time

The Bitcoin price and the entire crypto market have been on a tear since the outcome of the United States elections was announced in the early hours of Wednesday, November 6. The premier cryptocurrency specifically has breached and printed new all-time high prices over the past few days. Interestingly, the price of BTC has shown no signs of weakness going into the weekend, with the market leader forging a new record high above $77,000 on Friday, November 8. While the hot streak of the Bitcoin price can be attributed to the latest victory of former president Donald Trump in the US, on-chain data suggests that this rally has been a long time coming. BTCs Realized Cap Experiences Largest Increase In Two Years One of the latest on-chain metrics to offer an interesting insight into the meteoric rise of Bitcoins price is the realized cap indicator. In a November 8 post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that Bitcoins realized cap recently reached a new all-time high of $656 billion. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Forecast: Analyst Says Downside Is Minimized As 1M, 3M, And 6M Candles Turn Bullish For clarity, the realized cap metric measured the value of each Bitcoin as at the last time they were transacted. This offers a more interesting way to evaluate the cost basis (the time in which the coins changed hands) as opposed to the regular market capitalization, which is derived by multiplying the total number of circulating coins by the current market price. Data from Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin realized cap witnessed a 3.8% upswing in the past 30 days, which represents one of the metrics largest increases since January 2023. As shown in the chart below, this metric has been experiencing positive growth since the start of the year, as the 30-day net change has mostly been green. It is worth mentioning that the realized cap metric also represents the amount of capital flowing in and out of the flagship cryptocurrency. The latest increase reflects a net capital inflow of over $2.5 billion in the past month, suggesting the entry of new investors both retail and institutional investors. With the realized cap and Bitcoin price consolidating over the past few months, a sudden increase of the former to $656 billion suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might be moving from the reaccumulation phase to a markup phase. Ultimately, a continuation of the capital inflow trend could sustain the increase in the Bitcoin price over the next couple of months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is valued at around $76,700, having lost its hold above the historical $77,000 level. According to CoinGecko data, the market leader is up by an impressive 10% in the past week. Related Reading: Ethereum Analyst Sees Altseason Potential As BTS Is Still Outpacing ETH Time To Buy Altcoins? Featured image created by Dall.E, chart from TradingView

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Divergence between Bitcoins market and realized caps signals euphoria

The difference between Bitcoin’s realized cap and market cap is an underrated indicator of the phases of Bitcoin’s price cycles. The realized cap shows Bitcoin’s value based on the last price each coin moved, showing the actual capital invested into the asset. When the market cap, which reflects the value of all existing coins based […]

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Bitcoin Whales Are Going Through A Generational Shift, CryptoQuant CEO Reveals

The CEO of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how the Bitcoin whales have been showing a shift in their Realized Cap recently. New Bitcoin Whales Are About To Overtake Old Ones In a new post on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed the recent trend in the Realized Caps of the new and old Bitcoin whales. The “Realized Cap” here is a model that calculates the total valuation of Bitcoin by assuming that each coin’s ‘true’ value in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred or sold on the blockchain. The last transfer of any coin is likely the last point at which it changes hands, so the price at its time could be equated to its current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap measures the sum of the cost basis of the BTC supply. Or, put another way, this metric keeps track of the total amount of capital the investors have put into BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Nears 20%: Could This Trigger A Fresh Surge? In the context of the current topic, the version of the Realized Cap that’s of interest is limited to just two segments of the market: the new and old whales. Whales refer to entities carrying more than 1,000 coins in their wallets. This cohort is divided into two based on age using a 155-day cutoff. All whales bought within the past five months belong to the short-term holder or new whale cohort, while those who have been holding for longer than this duration are called the long-term holder or old whales. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the relative percentages of the Realized Cap contributed by these two Bitcoin groups: As the above graph shows, the Realized Cap of the new Bitcoin whales wasn’t anything significant before 2018, indicating that veteran capital was king on the network. Following 2018, though, the percentage dominance of this group gradually started to show an improvement. And this year, the growth in the Realized Cap of this cohort has blown up, with the metric’s value now sitting at $108 billion. For perspective, the indicator is standing at $113 billion for the old whales, which suggests the disparity between the two almost nonexistent. “Bitcoin whales are experiencing a generational shift,” notes Young Ju, based on this trend. “Realized Cap of new whales is expected to surpass that of older whales soon.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Not Sold On Uptober As Sentiment Remains Neutral As for the sudden sharp growth in the Realized Cap of the new whales, it’s likely that the inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been falling in this category. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,200, down more than 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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