Ethereums Wild Fluctuations: Heres What ETH Implied Volatility Tells Us

The cryptocurrency market has recently exhibited distinct divergences in the behavior of its two leading assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Bitcoin appears to be stepping into a phase of relative stability, Ethereum’s journey paints a contrasting picture of sustained uncertainty, particularly in its options market. This divergence is highlighted by the sustained high levels of implied volatility associated with Ethereum options, signaling a cautious outlook among investors regarding its future price movements. Related Reading: Ethereum Burn Rate Hits Yearly Low: What This Means For ETHs Future Ethereum Persisting Volatility: A Comparative Analysis Implied volatility (IV) serves as a crucial indicator in the options market, providing insights into the expected price fluctuations of an asset over a specific period. It reflects the market’s temperature, gauging the intensity of potential price movements traders anticipate. Recent analyses suggest that while Bitcoins implied volatility has settled down significantly post-halving, Ethereums has not followed suit. As Bitcoin’s IV dipped to a multi-month low, indicating a calming market, Ethereum’s IV remains stubbornly high. Contrary to the calming waves in the Bitcoin market, Ethereum wrestles with heightened volatility. According to data from Bitfinex Alpha Report, Bitcoin’s volatility index sharply declined from 72% at the time of its latest halving event to about 55%. On the other hand, Ethereum saw a more modest reduction in its volatility index, dropping from 76% to 65% in the same period. This persistent volatility in Ethereum’s market is primarily fueled by uncertainties surrounding significant upcoming regulatory decisions and broader market implications. The Ethereum market is particularly jittery in anticipation of the US Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) impending decision on two spot Ethereum ETFs, slated for late May 2024. This upcoming regulatory milestone is considered a critical event that could either catalyze a major market move or exacerbate the current volatility. The Bitfinex Alpha report underscores that regulatory uncertainty is a primary driver behind Ethereum’s less significant drop in its Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) compared to Bitcoins. ETH And BTC Show Signs of Recovery Amid Volatility Ethereum and Bitcoin have shown signs of recovery over the past week in terms of trading performance. Bitcoin has seen a 4.1% increase, while Ethereum reported a more modest gain of 2.4%. However, the last 24 hours have been less favorable for Ethereum, with a slight dip of 0.7%, underscoring the ongoing volatility and investor caution. Moreover, Ethereums network dynamics also reflect a subdued activity with a marked decrease in ETH burn rate attributed to reduced transaction fees. This technical aspect further complements a cautious Ethereum market narrative, poised on the brink of potentially significant shifts depending on external regulatory actions. Related Reading: Bitcoins Make-Or-Break Moment: Trading Guru Predicts Rally Amid Market Uncertainty Despite all these, analysts like Ashcrypto suggest that the current volatility could set the stage for a strong rebound in the year’s third quarter. Drawing on historical patterns, Ethereum’s speculative forecast is potentially reaching the $4,000 mark, provided market conditions align favorably. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Ethereum Shifts Gears: Breaks Key Resistance, New All-Time Highs Next

Ethereum (ETH) is currently at the forefront of an impending market surge, as indicated by a significant technical breakout. According to crypto analyst Jelle, Ethereum has recently emerged from a bearish pattern particularly breaking out from the falling wedge and flipping key resistance into support zones. Jelle reveals that Ethereum is currently pushing for the [...]

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Ethereum Soars 5.6% Ahead Of ETF Decision, Analysts Set Bigger Price Target

Ethereum (ETH) price is soaring ahead of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision regarding the Spot ETH ETF (exchange-traded fund). Investors’ and market watchers’ optimism has increased as the King of altcoins surpasses the $3,900 mark. Some analysts believe this bullish momentum could soon propel ETHs price above all established price targets. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Come Alive: Are They Buying Or Selling? Ethereum Soars Amid ETF Approval Expectation Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a significant uptick this week. As rumors of ETH spot ETFs being approved this Wednesday surged, the communitys sentiment towards the asset turned extremely bullish. Previously, Bloomberg experts had asserted that chances of an ETF approval were slim due to the US governments crackdown on the industry. However, this weeks U-turn from the Biden administration sparked a positive sentiment that increased the chances to 65-75%. As a result, Ethereum surged an impressive 30.4% from its price seven days ago. The King of altcoins went from trading just below the $3,000 mark to surpassing the $3,900 resistance level at the time of writing. The community’s optimistic expectations continue as several US lawmakers urge SEC chair Gary Gensler to approve Ethereum ETFs. As reported by Eric Balchunas, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers sent a letter on Tuesday to the SECs Chair asking for the approval of ETH ETFs and other digital assets. According to the letter, the Congress members believe digital asset-backed ETFs offer investors a regulated and transparent investment vehicle to gain exposure. The US lawmakers urged the Commission to maintain a consistent and equitable approach when reviewing upcoming applications for other crypto ETFs. Are Price Targets Too Low? Ethereum has performed remarkablely over the past few days. ETH has surged 5.6% as the community awaits the SECs decision. As pointed out by several market watchers, ETHs weekly candle is resting levels not seen since the first half of March. Crypto Yoddha highlighted Ethereums historic behavior for the previous all-time high (ATH) runs. Per the chart, the second-largest crypto asset went through a 700-day accumulation phase before breaking out and starting the bullish run. Similarly, ETH seemingly ended a 700-day accumulation period this cycle, which could lead to a rally towards a new ATH, if history repeats. The analyst set a target of $15,300 for this cycle. Likewise, Crypto Jelle pointed out that ETH broke out of a multi-month falling wedge pattern. Its recent performance successfully reclaimed the key resistance above the $3,600 mark and is currently testing the $3,900 price range. The trader considers that, if this is the current performance before the approval of ETH ETFs, his $10,000 target for this cycle might be too low.  However, he urged investors to try not to get sucked into overtrading. He considers the initial response to the decision hard to know despite the bullish sentiment. Ultimately, Jelle suggests the community to focus on what you know as the long-term outlook is much clearer. Related Reading: Altcoins Maniac Phase Preparing, Analysts Call For Next Leg Up On a similar note, Crypto analyst Mikybull points out that ETH is repeating the 2020 path that sparked off Alts season in 2021. Due to this, the trader considers that the bull targets for this cycle are $9,000-$11,000. The SECs decision regarding ETH ETFs will be announced around 8:30 pm UTC on May 23. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Nears Crucial Breakout: Could $4,000 Be The Next Move?

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently poised at a crucial juncture, with a prediction of a potential breakout. Prominent crypto analyst Jelle recently pointed out that Ethereum is nearing the end of a falling wedge pattern, a situation often interpreted as a bullish signal in technical analysis. Related Reading: Is Ethereum Set For A Major Rally? Options Traders Bet Big On $3,600+ Targets For June Technical Indicators And Market Sentiment Jelle observed a falling wedge pattern on Ethereum’s chart, which emerges as ETH recently reclaimed its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a development that further bolsters the bullish case. According to Jelle, if Ethereum can sustain this momentum and push past the upper boundary of the wedge, it might set its sights on the $4,000 level, a significant “psychological and technical” threshold. $ETH is close to breaking out from this falling wedge! After reclaiming the 100-day EMA, all it needs is a little push to break out from the multi-month continuation pattern. Target: >$4000. pic.twitter.com/IW5eIQWXzG Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) May 20, 2024 The anticipation of this breakout is heightened by the current market dynamics, where Ethereum is trading just above $3,000, specifically trading at price of $3,088, at the time of writing. The asset has experienced a modest increase of 0.2% in the last 24 hours and a total of 4.1% over the past week. However, looking at the price chart, Ethereum appears to have been consolidating just above the $3,000 level, suggesting a building base for future significant movement. This consolidation period, often called accumulation, may be largely due to market participants awaiting the upcoming decision from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the approval of the much-anticipated spot Ethereum ETF. With this critical announcement expected later in the week, buyers and sellers appear to be in a holding pattern, cautiously awaiting the news that will likely determine their next strategic moves. Ethereum Regulatory Decisions And Market Speculation So far, Bloombergs Senior ETF Analyst, Eric Balchunas, has expressed a cautious stance concerning the spot Ethereum ETF estimating only a 25% chance that the spot ETF will receive approval. On the other hand, Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, has revealed that the process for ETF approval involves several critical steps, including the acceptance of both 19b-4 filings (Exchange Rule Changes) and S-1 registration statements (initial registration forms for new securities). Related Reading: Expert Sets Timeline For When Ethereum Price Will Begin Rally To $10,000 While there is optimism that the 19b-4 filings might be approved, there is less certainty about the S-1s. The SEC’s slow engagement with these filings could indicate a prolonged review period, which might delay the introduction of Ethereum spot ETFs. SEC decision deadline this week on spot eth ETFs SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) & S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch. Technically possible for SEC to approve 19b-4s & then slow play S-1s (esp given reported lack of engagement here). Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) May 19, 2024 Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Is Ethereum Set For A Major Rally? Options Traders Bet Big On $3,600+ Targets For June

Ethereum (ETH) options for June show a marked interest in higher strike prices, focusing on levels exceeding $3,600. Data from Deribit reveals a concentrated bet among traders on calls surpassing this price, indicating a bullish sentiment toward Ethereum’s near-term trajectory. The most favored strike price among these optimistic bets is an ambitious $6,500. Related Reading: Can Ethereum Price Repeat Pattern and Start Fresh Surge To $3,200? Options Market Bullish On Ethereum  Notably, options are contracts that give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of calls) or sell (in the case of puts) the underlying asset at a specified strike price by the expiry date. A call option is typically purchased by traders who believe the asset will increase in price, allowing them to buy at a lower rate and potentially sell at a higher market price. Conversely, put options are favored by those anticipating a decline in the asset’s price, aiming to sell at the current rate and repurchase at a lower value. Currently, the Ethereum options market is tilting heavily towards calls, with the aggregate open interestrepresenting the total number of outstanding contract optionsshowing a preference for higher strike prices. This concentration of calls, primarily above the $3,600 mark, suggests that a significant market segment is positioning for Ethereum to ascend to higher levels by the end of June. According to Deribit data, roughly 622,636 Ethereum call contracts are set to expire by June’s end, encapsulating a notional value above $1.8 billion. Such substantial positioning underscores the market’s confidence in Ethereum’s potential uplift. Data further shows that the most substantial open interest is clustered around the $6,500 strike price, with a notional value of $193 million. This concentration reflects trader optimism and supports Ethereum’s market price, especially if these options are exercised as the asset price approaches or surpasses these strike levels. Despite the optimism embedded in these options, Ethereum is currently navigating a slight downturn. It has dropped 5.4% over the past week and 2.2% in the last 24 hours, positioning it below $2,900. This decline places even more focus on upcoming market catalysts that could significantly sway ETH’s price. Regulatory Decisions And Technical Indicators: A Dual Influence on ETH’s Path One significant upcoming event is the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on several applications for Ethereum-based Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which is due by May 25th. This decision is pivotal as approval could usher in a wave of institutional investments into Ethereum, potentially catapulting its price. Conversely, rejection could dampen the bullish sentiment and lead to further pullbacks. From a technical analysis standpoint, signs are pointing to a possible rebound. The “Bullish Cypher Pattern,” identified by the analyst Titan Of Crypto, suggests that Ethereum could be at a turning point. Currently, Ethereum is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, a key support zone in many bull markets. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Ethereum Price Will Drop To $2,500, Heres Why This level has historically acted as a launchpad for upward price movements, hinting that Ethereum could be gearing up for a significant rise. #Altcoins #Ethereum Bounce incoming. The Bullish Cypher Pattern played out perfectly and all the targets got reached .#ETH is currently at the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level also called “1st stop”. In a bull market this level holds. I expect a bounce from this level. pic.twitter.com/o9e6VLEREz Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) May 12, 2024 Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Ethereums Dive To 3-Year Low Against Bitcoin, Is This A Bear Trap? Trading Guru Weighs In

Trading Guru Peter Brandt has recently commented on the Ethereum vs. Bitcoin chart, offering intriguing insights into market developments. Brandt’s remark comes after his prior critiques of Ethereum, denigrating it as a “junk coin” and its proponents as “Etheridiots.” However, amidst Ethereum’s recent descent to its lowest position against Bitcoin in nearly three years, Brandt’s stance seems to have transformed. Related Reading: Sleeping Giant Awakens! Ethereum Whale With Over 12,000 ETH Creates Noise Ethereum Plunges Against Bitcoin: A Bear Trap? Upon analyzing the Ethereum-to-BTC chart, Brandt suggested the presence of a “bear trap,” indicating that the ongoing decline in Ethereum’s value compared to Bitcoin might entice sellers into additional short positions. However, this could lead to an unexpected reversal, turning the apparent breakdown in support into a false signal. Bear trap? That is always a possibility when price hits a new 35-month low. pic.twitter.com/aKQg9k7TcD Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 8, 2024 Brandt’s observation of a potential bear trap highlights the complexities within the cryptocurrency market and the importance of considering multiple factors when analyzing price movements. While Ethereum may be experiencing a period of relative weakness against Bitcoin, Brandt’s cautious optimism suggests that there may be opportunities for a reversal shortly. Bullish Signals Amid ETH/BTC Downturn Despite Ethereum’s recent challenges, bullish signals have emerged, hinting at a potential turnaround. The options market, in particular, has shown optimism, with a significant portion of Ethereum options open interest expiring by the end of April being bullish bets on price. Deribit data reveals that about $3.3 billion worth of notional ether options are scheduled to expire, with approximately two-thirds of this sum allocated to calls. Moreover, the Ethereum put-call ratio for the April expiration stands at 0.45, signaling a slightly more bullish stance than Bitcoin options. Notably, a put-call options ratio below one suggests bullish sentiment, with traders favoring call options over put options. Moreover, the emergence of two new Ethereum whales, according to the crypto tracking platform Spot On Chain, identified as 0x666 and 0x435, adds to Ethereum’s bullish sentiment. These entities collectively withdrew a substantial amount of ETH from a major exchange, suggesting growing confidence in Ethereum’s prospects despite its recent downtrend. Related Reading: FOMO Gives Way To Fear: Bitcoin-Ethereum Ratio Signals Shift In Crypto Sentiment While Ethereum faces downward pressure against Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s resilience in the market is evident. Crypto analyst Ali has highlighted that Bitcoin appears to be breaking out, with a potential upside target of $85,000 if it can hold above $70,800. #Bitcoin appears to be breaking out! If $BTC can hold above $70,800, the next target becomes $85,000! pic.twitter.com/JPLf18KZvt Ali (@ali_charts) April 8, 2024 When writing, Bitcoin trades above this critical level with a current market price of $71,621, indicating a possible climb towards $85,000 shortly. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Sentiment For Ethereum Hits 1-year Low, Analyst Says A Massive Run Is Coming

Sentiment for Ethereum (ETH) has reached its lowest levels in a year as the second-largest crypto by market capitalization struggles to reclaim the $4,000 mark. Despite investors sentiment, some analysts suggest that the King of altcoins is about to kickstart its bullish run to new highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Peak Between $160,000 And $290,000 If These Historical Patterns Repeat Report Ethereum Sentiment Drops To Yearly Low According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum social sentiment has hit a one-year low amid its struggle to turn the $4,000 resistance into support. Per the post, this metric reached its most negative levels since December 18, 2023, when ETH was trading around $2,100-$2,200. The analyst pointed out that this is a classic bullish indicator, noting that when sentiment hit rock bottom a year ago, ETHs price rallied around 30% in the following weeks. The cryptocurrency climbed to the $2,700 mark by January 12, a key level in ETHs rally to the March high of $4,093. If Ethereum followed the same pattern, the cryptocurrency could see a jump to the $4,900-$5,000 price range in the next month, potentially turning the next big resistance level into support in the following two weeks. Martinez explained that the cryptos rally will resume once ETH clears the $4,100 resistance, a level not seen since December 2021. Once this level is recovered, $6,000 will become a magnet. After breaking past the $4,000 mark this month, the second-largest crypto has struggled to turn this level into support. Its latest breakout attempt occurred at the start of the week when Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed its previous ATH. While BTC traded above the $107,000 range, Ethereum surged to $4,100 but quickly retraced to $3,900 before seeing a correction to the $3,800 level. Despite the pullback, ETH still registers gains in the weekly and monthly timeframes, recording a 2.3% and 22.6% increase, respectively. Will ETH Break Past $4,000 This Month? Altcoin Sherpa highlighted that ETH is roughly at the same spot that BTC was at around 70K, adding that it hasnt materially broken this level for years. In the last three years, ETH has been rejected from the $4,000 level several times but ran to its all-time high (ATH) when it was held in 2021. If it were to mirror Bitcoins performance, the cryptocurrency could see a run to its $4,800 ATH before aiming for its first price discovery target of around $5,000. The analyst also noted that December and January are the best times for the Altcoin markets performance. Similarly, Benjamin Cowen previously highlighted that ETHs pair against BTC is still following a familiar pattern where Ethereum historically finds renewed strength between December and January. Related Reading: PNUT Memecoin Drops 10% Following Peanuts Owner Legal Warning To Binance Nonetheless, Sherpa forecasted that the ETH/BTC pair would likely see one final shakeout before going up for a few weeks/months. To achieve this, the token must break past its recent 0.041 high. Trader and analyst Skew warned that breaking past the $4,000 resistance will take even more buying pressure as this price has some massive seller continuously topping up supply. Lastly, he stated that holding the $3,800 level was key to continuing the rally. As of this writing, ETH is trading at $3,874, a 2% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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