Bitcoin Rebounds After Nearing Cost Basis Of Short-Term Whales

Bitcoin has found a rebound back above the $66,000 mark following a drop towards the on-chain cost basis of the short-term holder whales. Bitcoin Drawdown Had Nearly Put Short-Term Whales Under Pressure As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC’s price had neared the Realized Price of the short-term holder whales during the recent drop, but had still managed to remain above the level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis (that is, the acquisition price) of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: PEPE Preparing For A 54% Move? Analyst Thinks So When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this level, it means that the investors as a whole are in a state of unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, it being under implies the overall market is carrying losses. In the context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire Bitcoin market isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the short-term holder (STH) whales. The STHs refer to the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, while the whales are categorized as entities holding greater than 1,000 BTC. As such, the STH whales would refer to the large investors who bought during the last five months. Naturally, the Realized Price of this group would indicate the average whale buying price over the past five months (and this price would obviously have to be one the cryptocurrency had traded at on some occasion inside this timeframe). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STH whales over the last decade: The value of the metric appears to have shot up in recent months | Source: CryptoQuant From the graph, it’s visible that the Realized Price of the STH whales has rapidly climbed alongside the sharp rally Bitcoin has gone through this year. This makes sense, as the STHs represent the new hands coming into the market, who would have to buy at higher prices as the asset’s surge would continue. Not only that, but the STHs who age past the 155 days mark (that is, those who bought at the relatively low prices) exit out of the cohort, thus raising the average even further. The group that these matured investors advance to is known as the long-term holder (LTH) cohort. In the same chart, the quant has also attached the data for the Realized Price of the LTH whales as well. It would appear that these veteran whales have their cost basis at just $21,500, meaning that these investors would be getting some big rewards for their patience. In contrast, the STH whales have their Realized Price at $60,700. Related Reading: Dogecoin Usurped: These Memecoins Overtake DOGE In Active Trader Count During Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, the asset had come close to retesting this mark. Such retests have historically lead to reactions in the market and during bull runs, this reaction has often appeared in the form of buying. This may be why the cryptocurrency found its rebound near the $60,700 level. BTC Price With its latest rebound, Bitcoin has so far managed to recover back towards the $66,500 level. Looks like the price of the coin has made some recovery from its recent drop | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Thomas Kelley on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Sentiment Cools Off, Price Rebound Soon?

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index shows that the sentiment around the asset has cooled off a bit recently, something that could pave the way for a rebound. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Gone Through Some Decline Recently The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among the investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market To determine the trader mentality, the index takes into consideration for these five factors: volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin FOMO: Over 533,330 Addresses Bought Above $70,180 The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. A score of 46 or less implies the presence of fear among the investors, while that of 54 and above suggests greed in the market. The territory between these two (47 to 53) naturally corresponds to the neutral mentality. Besides these three sentiments, there are also two extreme sentiments called “extreme greed” and “extreme fear.” The extreme greed occurs at values above 75, while the extreme fear takes place below 25. Historically, these two sentiments have been quite relevant for BTC’s trajectory. Tops have generally tended to form when the investors have held the former sentiment, while bottoms have been probable to happen when the market has been in the latter region. At present, the traders are holding a mentality of extreme greed, as the latest data of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index shows. Looks like the value of the metric is 77 at the moment | Source: Alternative As is visible, the indicator’s value is 77 right now, meaning that while it’s indeed inside extreme greed, it’s only so just. This is a fresh change from how it has been recently, as the chart below displays. The value of the indicator appears to have been going down recently | Source: Alternative From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has mostly stayed deep inside the extreme greed region recently. On the 14th of this month, the indicator hit the 88 mark, and alongside this high, the BTC price registered its current all-time high of about $73,800. Since this peak, though, the asset has plunged, and it appears that alongside it, so has the sentiment among the traders. As mentioned earlier, tops have been more likely to occur when the market has shared a mentality of extreme greed and this probability has generally only gone up the more extreme levels the metric has hit. This could perhaps explain why the recent top occurred when it did. Another top this month, the one that took place on the 5th, also coincided with high values in the Fear & Greed Index (a peak of 90 this time). Related Reading: Bitcoin To $53,200? Why History Says Its Possible Shortly after this earlier peak and the plummet in the cryptocurrency that had followed, the asset found its bottom as the metric briefly exited the extreme greed region. As the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is once again looking to dip outside this territory, it’s possible that a bottom may be near for the price this time as well. It now remains to be seen if the sentiment would cool down enough in the coming days so as to leave the extreme region behind, at least temporarily. BTC Price Bitcoin had plunged towards $64,500 during the weekend, but it seems the coin has made some recovery in the past day as it’s now back at $68,000. The price of the coin seems to have gone through some volatility recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

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Will Bitcoin Rebound? This Metric May Be The One To Watch

The on-chain analytics firm Santiment suggests that this indicator may be the one to watch to get hints about when Bitcoin might rebound. Large Stablecoin Holders Have Seen Stagnant Supply Recently According to Santiment, the movements of the dolphins and sharks of the top stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) may be relevant for the price of Bitcoin. Generally, investors make use of these fiat-tied tokens whenever they want to escape the volatility associated with other assets in the market, like BTC. Such investors, however, are likely to buy back into the volatile cryptocurrencies, as holders who are truly exiting the space do so through fiat. When these investors feel that the prices are right to jump back into the other coins, they simply exchange their stablecoins for them. Naturally, this shift can act as buying pressure for the market they are moving into, and thus, provide a bullish boost to the asset’s price. To check whether there is any significant conversion of stables happening into Bitcoin and others right now, Santiment has looked at the data for the supply of the relatively large stablecoin investor groups. More specifically, the combined holdings of the dolphins and sharks are of interest here. These holders generally hold between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC on their balances. Now, here is a chart that shows how the supply of these investor cohorts has changed for USDT and USDC over the last few months: Looks like the two metrics haven't shown much movement in recent days | Source: Santiment on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the dolphins and sharks of the two largest stablecoins in the sector have seen their combined supply move mostly sideways during the last few weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharks Continue Accumulation, But Whales Stagnate This means that these decently-sized investors haven’t been taking part in any sort of net conversions recently, whether it be swapping Bitcoin into stables, or exchanging their stables for other assets. Interestingly, this sideways trend has continued during the last few days, despite the plunge to the low $29,000 levels that the cryptocurrency has observed in this period. “Currently, one of our key considerations revolves around whether this behavioral pattern will continue in the incoming 24 hours, especially in the wake of today’s fallen prices,” explains the analytics firm. “Will these users perceive this change as an opportunity to ‘buy the dip’? Or will they opt to ‘abandon ship’ amidst growing market uncertainty?” Naturally, if the supply of these large stablecoin holders starts to slip down in the near future, it can be a sign that these investors are buying Bitcoin while its price is at a discount. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunge To $29,200 Sends 5.9% Of Supply Into Loss Though, on the other hand, an increase instead would obviously be a worrying signal, as it may mean that the dolphins and sharks are starting to give up on BTC for now and exiting from it. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,200, down 3% in the last week. The value of the asset seems to have been moving sideways since the plummet | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Santiment.net

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Bitcoin Rebounds From $27,100 After Spike In Bearish Sentiment

Data shows the Bitcoin sentiment had turned quite bearish just before the asset’s price had rebounded up from the $27,100 level. Bitcoin Recovers Shortly After FUD Takes Over Market According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, investors showed high levels of fear around the time of the local bottom during the past day. The relevant indicator here is the “social volume,” which measures the total number of social media text documents that mention a given topic like cryptocurrency or Bitcoin. These social media text documents include a variety of sources, like Reddit, Twitter, Telegram, and other forums. The social volume only tracks how many such documents mention the term at least once. So this means that even if a post contains the keyword several times, its contribution to the social volume will still be only one unit. The significance of the social volume is that it tells us about the amount of discussion that certain topics are getting from social media participants at the moment. In the context of the current topic, social media is used to know the degree of the bearish and bullish sentiments in the market. Here is a chart that shows the trend in these social volumes for Bitcoin over the last week: Looks like the bearish sentiment has seen a sharp surge recently | Source: Santiment on Twitter To separate the social volume for discussions that imply a bullish mentality, terms such as “buy, bottom, bullish” have been chosen, while keywords like “sell, top, bearish” are the ones selected for pinpointing a bearish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Moving From American Holders To Asian Wallets: Glassnode As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin social volume for the bearish sentiment seems to have observed a large spike during the past day. This surge in the indicator had come after BTC had plunged from above $28,000 to around $27,100. This suggests that the BTC investors had turned very fearful during this panic selloff. A similar level of bearish sentiment was also observed only a couple of days back, as the chart highlights. The turn in market mentality back then had also come following a decline (this time from the $29,000 mark to the low $27,000 levels), and interestingly, it had coincided with the local bottom in the price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates On BitMEX Turn Deep Red, Here’s Why This Is Bullish The spike this time has also occurred simultaneously with the possible local bottom formation at $27,100, as the price of the cryptocurrency has recovered a little bit since then. Historically, whenever the market has held an opinion too unbalanced in any particular direction, the price has tended to move opposite to this opinion of the masses. Because of this, in times when the market has seen large amounts of greed, a local top has generally become more probable. Naturally, the same goes for local bottoms as well, since they have usually formed when FUD has taken over the minds of the investors. The recent spike appears to have been an example of this pattern, and so far, it looks like the latest bearish sentiment spike may also be the same. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,500, down 5% in the last week. BTC seems to have been moving sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Santiment.net

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Analyst Identifies Bitcoin Key Support Levels Amid Rebound Challenge Details

The price of Bitcoin has shown no significant movement in the past day following a price rebound at the start of January 2025. Currently trading near $98,000, speculation is mounting about whether Bitcoin has exited its correction phase, with high expectations of an impending bull market. Related Reading: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders See 10% Profit Potential Impact On Price? Strong Bitcoin Support Zone Emerges Between $95,090-$96,531 In an X post on January 4, digital asset analysis platform More Crypto Online shared an insight on the present state of the Bitcoin market.  With the application of the Elliott Wave Theory, these analysts deduced that Bitcoins price may have developed a potential 5-wave pattern which can be indicative of a bullish movement. For context, the Elliott Wave Theory works on the basis that financial markets move in predictable patterns due to investor psychology and natural market rhythms.  The 5-wave pattern also known as the impulsive wave pattern generally moves in the direction of the larger trend. With Bitcoin still in a bullish shape despite recent corrections, the completion of the 5-wave pattern to the upward direction indicates a strong price rally i.e. BTC is out of correction with a focus on new highs.  However, in order to solidify this notion of impending new all-time highs, Bitcoin must break above the December 26th price peak of $99,900 which represents a major resistance level.  In the advent of any rejections/retracements amidst this bullish charge, the crypto analysts at More Crypto Online have pinpointed a significant support zone between $95,090 – $96,531 capable of acting as a cushion for retest. Albeit, if there is an overwhelming selling pressure, Bitcoin could slide as low as $92,950 representing a potential 5.5% fall from its current market price. Related Reading: Dogecoin Weekly RSI Approaches The MA Line, Can Price Resume Uptrend To Break $0.74 ATH? BTC Price Overview  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $97,227 reflecting a 0.21% gain in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the assets daily trading volume has dipped by 17.25% and is valued at $30.03 billion. Bitcoin has also risen 3.57% over the past week but remains down 3.79% for the month. The premier cryptocurrency remains one of the best-performing coins in the last year having a profit of 121.32% in this timeframe. According to data from Coincodex, sentiments in the BTC remain bullish with the Fear & Greed Index now at 73 reflecting an almost extreme greed among investors. With the crypto bull market set to take off with the potential of a pro-crypto US government on the horizon, the analysts at Coincodex predict Bitcoin to reach $132,775 in the first quarter of 2025, and rise as high as $172,192 by June. Featured image from Finbold, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin Plunge Under $28,000 Only Temporary? This Metric Suggests So

Bitcoin has now plunged under the $28,000 level, but the data of an on-chain indicator may suggest that this drop could only be temporary. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Dropped Just Under The 1 Level As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the current values of the metric have generally served as ideal buying opportunities during rallies in the past. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio,” which tells us whether the average Bitcoin investor is selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When this indicator has a value greater than 1, it means the profits being realized in the market are currently greater than the losses. On the other hand, values below this threshold suggest a dominance of loss-taking from the holders. The SOPR being exactly equal to 1 naturally corresponds to a neutral state, where the average holder is just breaking even on their investment, as profits are equal to losses here. While the SOPR is generally defined for the entire Bitcoin market, it can also be applied to specific segments of the market. In the context of the current discussion, the “short-term holder” (STH) segment is of interest. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Drop Further? Whales Show Signs Of Dumping The STHs make up a cohort that includes all investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. The STHs who manage to hold beyond this threshold enter into the “long-term holder” (LTH) group. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have seen some decline recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR was below the 1 mark during last year’s bear market, suggesting that the average STH had been selling at a loss in this period. This is the typical behavior observed in bearish periods, as the constant price decline makes investors panic and sell at losses. An interesting pattern that is seen during such periods is that the line where SOPR attains a value of 1 starts providing resistance to the asset. The reason this happens is that at this level, the STHs are selling at the price they bought in. During bear markets, they usually go into losses, so whenever they find the opportunity to sell to recoup their original investment, they jump right on it. This is why the level provides resistance and forces the indicator to stay under it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy As Parabolic SAR Flips Bearish On Daily Chart The opposite behavior is seen in price rallies, however, as holders start looking at the break-even level as a profitable entry point, which leads to a large amount of buying taking place at the level. This assures that the indicator quickly returns above the 1 level if it falls below it. From the chart, it’s visible that the rally this year has also seen a similar trend so far, as the Bitcoin STH SOPR has maintained above 1 (besides a temporary drop in March, which ended up resulting in a sharp surge in the price). In the last few days, the indicator has again plunged to this level of much historical significance as the price has slipped under $28,000. If the past pattern is anything to go by, a rebound could become more probable for the BTC price here. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,600, down 1% in the last week. Looks like BTC has sharply dropped in value during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Will Bitcoin Rebound Anytime Soon? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says

Bitcoin has continued to struggle recently as its price is still in the low $29,000 level. Here’s what on-chain data says about if a rebound is likely or not. What Does Bitcoin On-Chain Data Say About The Asset’s Near-Term Outlook? Bitcoin has stagnated recently as the cryptocurrency’s price has failed to keep any significant moves [...]

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