Bitcoin Breaks $64,000, But This Pattern Could Mean Bull Run Isnt Safe

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Profit indicator has been forming a pattern recently that could put the bull run into jeopardy. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Has Seen Multiple Dips Into “Transition” Zone Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the recent “Supply in Profit” trend could suggest a potential entry into [...]

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Bitcoin Now Forming Pattern That Last Led To It Blasting Off

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is forming a pattern in its Total Amount of Holders, which last proved bullish for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Has Seen A Fall In Its Total Number of Holders Recently According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, BTC investors have been liquidating their wallets amid the recent bearish wave in [...]

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Bitcoin Realized Volatility Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next

Data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Volatility metric has fallen to historically low levels. What generally happens after this pattern forms? Bitcoin Realized Volatility Has Decline To Extreme Lows Recently In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the latest trend taking place in the Realized Volatility of Bitcoin. The Realized Volatility here refers to an indicator that basically tells us about how volatile a given asset has been based on its price returns within a specified window. When the value of this metric is high, it means that the asset in question has experienced a large number of fluctuations during the period. On the other hand, the low indicator implies that the price action has been stale for the commodity. Related Reading: Ethereum Investors Take On Sky-High Leverage: Brace For Volatile Storm? Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 1-week Realized Volatility for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 1-week Bitcoin Realized Volatility has declined to pretty low levels of around 7% recently. This is so extreme that only ten other instances in the past six years have seen the metric go similarly low. This means that the cryptocurrency’s recent consolidation has been amongst the tightest in its history; as for what this trend in the indicator could mean for the cryptocurrency, perhaps past patterns could provide some hints. An inspection of the chart reveals that such stale price action in the asset has generally unwound with a burst of sharp volatility. The latest instance occurred right before the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Given this pattern, it’s possible that the recent BTC consolidation could also lead to another sharp move for the cryptocurrency. Something to note, however, is that the volatility emerging out of lows in the Realized Volatility has historically gone either way, implying that the price move emerging out of this tight range could very well be a crash. It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin price will develop from here on out, given the historically stale action it has witnessed over the past week. In other news, as Axel pointed out in another X post, the recent movement from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox has meant that many on-chain indicators have shown false signals. The analyst has cited the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) chart as an example. The aSOPR keeps track of the net profit or loss investors across the network realize. As the Mt. Gox BTC had been sitting still in wallets for quite a long time, it’s not surprising that its movement has “realized” a large amount of profit. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Is One Of Cryptos Top Leading Indicators: Santiment Of course, this spike in the indicator isn’t actually a sign of profit-taking, so it’s not a signal that would impact the market. BTC Price Bitcoin has declined over the past day as its price is now down to $66,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Price Linked To Binance Vs Coinbase Battle, Quant Reveals

A quant has explained how there appears to be a relationship between Coinbases spot volume dominance vs. Binances and the Bitcoin price. Bitcoin Has Been Reacting To Binance/Coinbase Volume Changes In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the dynamics in the cryptocurrency market that arise out of the battle happening between Binance and Coinbase [...]

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Bitcoin 40% Of Way Through Bull Run If This Metric Is To Go By

A pattern in the holdings of the Bitcoin long-term holders may suggest that the current bull run is 40% of the way to completion. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Distributing Recently In a new post on X, Glassnode lead analyst Checkmate discussed the recent behavior of the long-term Bitcoin holders. The long-term holders (LTHs) here [...]

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Is The Bitcoin Top Already Here? This Historical Pattern Says So

A historical pattern currently forming in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator could suggest that a top may be near for the asset, if not already in. Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Is Forming A Historical Top Pattern Right Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about a pattern regarding the SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss right now. Related Reading: Ethereum To See Fresh Move Soon? What Futures Data Says When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that profit-selling is dominant in the market currently. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the average holder is moving coins at some net loss. In the context of the current topic, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a different version called the SOPR Ratio. The name may be a bit confusing as SOPR already contains a “ratio,” but the latter ratio here corresponds to the fact that this indicator compares the SOPR of two Bitcoin cohorts: the long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). These investor groups make up for the two main divisions of the BTC market done based on holding time, with 155 days being the cutoff between the two. The STHs are those who bought within the past 155 days, while the LTHs include the HODLers carrying coins for longer than this timespan. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have turned around towards the downside recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin SOPR Ratio had been heading up throughout 2023 and early parts of 2024, but recently, the metric has hit a top and reversed its direction. Whenever the SOPR Ratio is higher than 1, it means the LTHs, who are generally known to be resolute hands, are participating in a higher degree of profit-taking than the STHs. It would appear that as BTC had observed its rally and approached a new all-time high (ATH), these diamond hands had started harvesting some of the gains they had earned over their long holding time. And once the price set a new ATH, these investors participated in peak profit-taking. Since then, their profit-selling has been dropping off, although they are still harvesting notably higher gains than the STHs. In the chart, the analyst highlights how this pattern has been repeated at different points in the asset’s history. While the scale of the peak LTH profit-taking has been heading down over the cycles, it’s still true that the metric’s top has coincided with tops in the price during each of them. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $1: Analyst Thinks Dream Milestone Could Be Hit In Coming Weeks As the line drawn by the quant suggests, it’s possible that the latest peak in the metric may have in fact been the top for this cycle. This is only, however, assuming that the pattern of diminishing returns in the indicator holds to the exact degree judged by the line. It’s possible that the peak will still be higher than the current levels, while at the same time being lower than the previous cycle’s peak, thus still being in-line with the historical Bitcoin pattern. Whatever the case be, though, the fact that the SOPR ratio has apparently hit a top could still be a bearish signal, if only in the short term. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making some steady recovery over the last few days as its price has now surged back above $66,100. Looks like the price of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Nears Two Important On-Chain Levels: What Happened Last Time

Data shows Bitcoin is currently nearing two notable on-chain price levels. Heres what happened the last time BTC broke above them. Bitcoin Is Approaching Vaulted Price & MVRV +1SD Currently In a new post on X, Glassnode leads on-chain analyst Checkmate points out that BTC has been near two on-chain price levels recently. The first [...]

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Bitcoin Bull Flag Could Predict 10% Surge To $77,000, Analyst Explains

An analyst has explained that a breakout from a bull flag pattern could lead Bitcoin to surging towards a new all-time high of $77,000. Bitcoin Has Been Forming A Bull Flag Pattern Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali has discussed about a bull flag recently forming in the 4-hour price of the cryptocurrency. The “bull flag” here refers to a pattern in technical analysis that, as its name implies, looks like a flag on a pole. In this pattern, a sharp uptrend is succeeded by a period of consolidation towards the downside. The uptrend makes up for the pole, while the consolidation period acts as the flag. Related Reading: Dogecoin Soars 17% To Break $0.21 As Volume Explodes When the price is trapped inside the flag, it tends to find resistance at its upper line, so tops may be probable to form there. Similarly, the lower line may act as support, thus facilitating for bottoms to take shape. The bull flag is usually considered to be a continuation pattern, meaning that the prevailing trend (that is, the trend of the flag) would continue once the consolidation period is over. This happens when a break above the resistance line takes place. The uptrend emerging out of such a break may be of the same height as the pole. If the asset falls under the support line, though, the pattern could be considered invalidated. Like the bull flag, there is also the bear flag pattern, which works similarly except for the fact that the pole in this case corresponds to a downtrend while the flag is generally a consolidation channel angled upwards. Just like the bull flag, a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend may follow this formation. Now, here is the chart shared by Ali that shows the bull flag that BTC’s 4-hour price has recently been consolidating inside: Looks like the price of the asset has been breaking out of this pattern recently | Source: @ali_charts on X From the graph, it’s visible that the 4-hour Bitcoin price has appeared to have been consolidating inside this bull flag over the last few days. It’s also apparent that, in the past day, BTC has been climbing above the resistance line of the pattern. This could mean that the cryptocurrency is preparing a break out of this formation. Naturally, the asset would have to show more momentum before the breakout can be confirmed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquid Inventory Ratio Hits All-Time Low, What It Means “If BTC holds above $70,000, we could see a surge of nearly 10% to a new all-time high of $77,000!” says Ali. The analyst has chosen this target as such a swing would be of the same length as the pole that had preceded this flag. BTC Price Bitcoin has so far been heading in a direction that would add more credence to the breakout, as its price has now broken past the $71,300 level. With this surge, BTC investors would be enjoying profits of more than 7% over the past week. The price of the asset appears to have surged over the past 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Faces Rejection At $84,000, But Analysts Show 2020 Similarities Recovery Ahead?

Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to reclaim $84,000 resistance again and has fallen 4% to retest another crucial support zone. Some analysts suggested that the cryptocurrencys rally will be determined by its weekly close, which could see BTC crash or climb to new levels. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Retests Crucial Support Level Is A 50% Price Drop On The Horizon? Bitcoin Hits $84,000 Wall Again After losing the $84,000-$86,000 support zone on Sunday, Bitcoin has failed to reclaim this level. The flagship crypto has retraced over 11% in the past week, briefly falling to a 4-month low of $76,600 on Monday. Since then, BTCs price has hovered between the $80,000-$84,000 range, failing to break above the ranges upper zone for the past four days. Crypto analyst Jelle noted that this resistance level has been a key level throughout the first half of March. Notably, the $84,000 mark served as an important bounce level during the start-of-month price pump and correction, and reclaiming it will make all the difference for how the rest of the month goes. Bitcoin has attempted to regain this level in the past 24 hours, climbing to $83,900 on Thursday morning. To the analyst, a reclaim of $84,000 could propel the price back to the post-election breakout range, and things would get real interesting. Ali Martinez pointed out that the biggest supply barrier for Bitcoin sits at the $95,000 range, where 1.2 million investors purchased 726,000 BTC. He also noted that the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is consolidating within an ascending triangle, which could lead to a 9% surge to the $90,000 mark if it breaks out above $84,000. Nonetheless, BTC failed to reclaim this key resistance and retraced to the $80,000 support zone. Jelle warned that bulls need to defend the current area, or this could cascade towards the high seventies once more. Is BTCs Cycle Top Or Bottom In? Ted Pillows suggested that BTC is poised for another leg up as its price action resembles previous performances. He highlighted that Bitcoin has held its ascending support trendline like in 2017 and 2020, which shows that the cycle isnt over yet. Based on this historical price performance, the analyst considers that the cryptocurrency could retest the $72,000-$74,000 support before a local bottom is in. After that, there’ll be some consolidation followed by the next leg up, he explained. Trader Titan of Crypto pointed at a potential reversal as BTC is showing signs of bottoming on the weekly chart with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as support, an Oversold Stochastic RSI bullish crossover, and price at the lower Bollinger Band. He also noted that BTCs price action resembles 2020s market structure before a major breakout. Related Reading: Ethereum Risks Another 15% Correction After Fall Below $2,000 Whats Next For ETH? Meanwhile, analyst Nebraskangooner affirmed that Bitcoin has been historically predictable, which suggests that its weekly close range will be key for the next move. According to the post, if BTC closes the week below $67,250, it would potentially indicate the market has already hit the top, as it would become a distribution range. The analyst explained that the cryptocurrency has respected the distribution, accumulation, and instant reversal levels in every BTC bear market. If Bitcoin remains historically predictable, the cryptocurrency could fall to levels not seen since late 2023 and early 2024. As of this writing, BTC trades at $80,810, a 3.4% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Monthly Cyclicality Paints Grim Picture For Last Week Of February

For the past year, bitcoin has shown a cyclicality that has been on a semi-regular basis. For most of last year, most months had finished in the positive with green candles dominating the market. However, while most of the months have been positive, there have been significant differences between the first half of the month and the second half. This push and pull pattern has continued into the new year, spelling some bad news for the end of February. Looking At Monthly Cyclicality Through 2021 Eight months out of the last 14 months have been recording positive returns mid-month. Across these eight months, the returns have not carried on to the end of the month for five months, leaving only three months that saw positive mid-month to end-month returns. Most of bitcoin’s gains have been recorded occurring in the first half of the month, while the second half usually suffered losses. Related Reading | False Safe Haven: Bitcoin Correlation With S&P 500 Hits ATH These periods of gains and losses usually coincide with the CME future expires which usually occur mid-month. And from mid-month to the next expiry date, the pattern usually plays out as illustrated in the chart below. BTC monthly cyclicality shows interesting pattern | Source: Arcane Research Following this pattern for the past year would put a trader in significant profit over the past year. That is if they purchased the digital assets when the CME futures were expiring and subsequently sold the next mid-month. The reverse would put a trader in over 50% loss from their initial investment, indicating that timing the CME futures expiry and following bitcoin’s cyclicality could be a favorable strategy. February End Not Looking Good For Bitcoin Given that this cyclicality has carried on into 2022, then the last week of February may see the digital asset end on a low note. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are already being rocked by social and political issues, most recently, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. These have seen the digital asset plummet towards $35,000, giving bears a complete hold of the market. BTC recovers above $35K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com For the first half of February, bitcoin had recorded 17% growth. But from mid-month to the end of the month, it has turned down, with over 12% losses already being recorded. If this pattern continues, then bitcoin is looking at another week of losses before ushering in the month of March. This would mean that the digital asset could see significant growth from the beginning of March till mid-month. Related Reading | Data Says Bitcoin Holds Up To Macro Turmoil Better Than Altcoins It is still unclear what is leading to this cyclicality. However, the CME future expiry has presented one of the strongest arguments for it. Arcane Research notes that the digital asset is known to revert to its monthly VWAP price which coincides with the max pain price of month options. Although it is still unclear if this is the reason behind this cyclicality. Featured image from USA Today, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Near Crucial Retest: Which Of These Historical Patterns Will Repeat?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is near a crucial retest currently that may decide where the cryptocurrency will go next from here. Which Pattern Will Bitcoin Follow Next: 2016 Or 2019? As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC SOPR for short-term holders is approaching the baseline. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling/moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the market is realizing some amount of profit with their selling currently. On the other hand, values below this threshold suggest loss taking is the dominant force in the market at the moment. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to the 1 baseline implies the total amount of profits being realized are exactly canceling out the amount of losses as the market as a whole is neutral. This SOPR is for the entire Bitcoin market, but in the context of the current discussion, the relevant version of the metric is the one for just a single segment of the market: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STH group includes all the investors who purchased their coins less than 155 days ago. This cohort generally includes the weak hands of the market, who may easily react to fluctuations in the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last few years: Looks like both the metrics have been above the baseline in recent days: Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day MA of the Bitcoin STH SOPR (colored in yellow) broke out above the 1 baseline back when this rally first started around the beginning of the year. This breakout suggested a shift towards profit selling for these investors, something that has historically been observed in all previous major rallies in the cryptocurrency. With the latest leg in the Bitcoin rally above the $30,000 mark, the 365-day MA of the indicator (highlighted in blue) has also managed to climb up above this mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Spikes, Is This Bearish? While this has been happening, though, the 90-day MA has actually been heading down and is now about to cross below the 365-day MA as it approaches the 1 baseline. In the chart, the quant has marked the two previous instances where a trend similar to this had formed for the asset. It looks like back in 2016 when the 90-day MA had retested the 1 mark after a similar structure had taken shape, the metric had found support at the break-even mark. This rebound kept Bitcoin going and the coin eventually built up into a bull market. In 2019, though, the retest of the 90-day MA STH SOPR failed and a bearish trend once again took over the coin. It wouldn’t be until 160 days later that bullish sentiment returned and the rally happened. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Broken This Open Interest Pattern, Quant Explains As the current Bitcoin market looks to be in a similar spot as these two historical occurrences, it’s possible that it may follow the lead of one of these. It now remains to be seen, as to which of these patterns the asset might exhibit this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,300, down 1% in the last week. BTC has surged during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoins Big Breakout: This Bullish Pattern Signals An Imminent Price Surge

Market analysts have recently observed a notable pattern in Bitcoin price chart, potentially signaling a shift in the market trend. Jake Wujastyk, a prominent market analyst, has particularly pointed out the emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on Bitcoin’s daily candle chart. This pattern, coupled with Bitcoin’s closing price above a significant “volume shelf” signals an imminent upward trajectory for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Halving Prep: Analyst Outlines Key Points Ahead Of Event Bitcoin Surge On The Horizon In technical analysis, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is traditionally interpreted as a bullish signal. It is characterized by two lower peaks (shoulders) on either side of a far-down valley (head). The completion of this pattern occurs when the price breaks above the resistance level, known as the “neckline.” In Bitcoins case, this neckline also aligns with a ‘volume shelf,’ as Wujastyk indicates, a price level where many contracts have previously been traded, indicating strong support or resistance. #Bitcoin Inverse head & shoulders on the daily candle chart as price closed above the volume shelf today. $BTCUSD #Crypto pic.twitter.com/zE1lDJGnAM Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) February 2, 2024 As Bitcoins price currently sits above the critical level of $43,000 up by 4.7% in the past week, it suggests a growing momentum among buyers, hinting at a potential uptrend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has seen a 2.1% increase in its price over the past 24 hours, reaching $43,144. This price movement occurs against a backdrop of fluctuating daily trading volumes, which have decreased from over $25 billion to below $20 billion in a day. Notably, this pattern’s emergence is particularly noteworthy as Bitcoin options are set to expire, with 22,000 BTC options nearing their expiry date. These options have a Put Call Ratio of 0.66, a Maxpain point of $42,000, and a notional value of $960 million, as per data from Greekslive. For context, the Put Call Ratio is a key indicator in options trading, representing the number of put options relative to call options. A lower ratio suggests a bullish sentiment, as it indicates more call options (bets on the price rising) are being traded compared to put options (bets on the price falling). Market Trends And BTC Halving Anticipation The broader crypto market, including Ethereum (ETH) options, is also approaching expiration. 230,000 ETH options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.33, a Maxpain point of $2,300, and a notional value of $530 million. These figures suggest a more bullish outlook for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. Furthermore, according to GreekLive, the market has seen subdued activity recently, with both realized volatility (RV) and implied volatility (IV) trending lower for major cryptocurrencies. Feb. 2 Options Data 22,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.66, a Maxpain point of $42,000 and a notional value of $960 million. 230,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.33, a Maxpain point of $2,300 and a notional value of pic.twitter.com/tEQWxRXxtB Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) February 2, 2024 However, introducing Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is beginning to attract incremental capital to the crypto market, compensating for the slowdown in grayscale sell-off. Meanwhile, the anticipation around Bitcoin’s halving event, scheduled for April 2024, is creating a buzz in the market. A recent survey by Bitget indicates a bullish sentiment among investors regarding the upcoming Bitcoin halving. 84% of respondents globally believe that Bitcoin will exceed its all-time high of $69,000 in the next bull run. Related Reading: Market Survey Signals Bull Run: Investors Predict Bitcoin To Surpass $69,000 Post Halving Predictions for Bitcoins price during the halving are varied, with over half expecting it to be between $30,000 and $60,000, while about 30% foresee it is surpassing $60,000. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Has Broken This Open Interest Pattern, Quant Explains

A quant has explained how a pattern in the Bitcoin open interest that held during the past month now appears to be broken. Bitcoin Open Interest Is Now Moving Against The Price As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC price had earlier been rising along with increases in the open interest. [...]

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