Bitcoin Could Top At $400,000 Based On This Model, Analyst Says

An analyst has explained how the next Bitcoin top could be situated around $400,000, if this model for the asset’s price continues to hold. Bitcoin Long-Term Power Law Could Reveal Possible Location Of Next Top In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about what the Long-Term Power Law could say about the next potential Bitcoin top. The “Long-Term Power Law” here refers to a BTC price model created by Bitbo. The model involves three lines, the main one being the “power law,” which is derived by taking a linear regression of the historical BTC price. “This power law is just a straight line to represent the correlation between Bitcoins price and time,” notes Bitbo in the model’s description. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is At A Critical Retest: Can Bulls Triumph? The other two lines of the model are just replicas of the power law, with the only difference being how they are arranged on the chart. One of these lines is placed under the power law just enough that BTC’s historical price either stays above it or touches it. This level of the model is called the support line. Similarly, the other line sets an upper boundary on the cryptocurrency’s price and is known as the resistance level. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Long-Term Power Law over the history of the asset: As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin’s spot price is currently being traded under the power law. The asset retested the line earlier in the year when it set its new all-time high (ATH) but couldn’t find a break. Despite the recent bearish action, though, BTC still has some distance over the support line of the model. The graph shows that Bitcoin set three of its major tops around the resistance line. However, the 2021 bull run top occurred before the asset could reach the level. Thus, it’s unknown whether or not the current BTC cycle will follow the lead of the earlier three. Related Reading: Is Altcoin Season Coming? These Two Signals Could Suggest So “If the Bitcoin Long-Term Power Law holds, the next market top might hit around $400,000!” notes Martinez, based on the fact that the resistance level would assume a value around that mark next year. As for when exactly BTC could hit its next cyclical top, the analyst has also discussed it in another X post, sharing the chart below for the asset’s performance during the last couple of cycles. “If this Bitcoin cycle follows the last two, we could see a market top in about a year, around October 2025!” says Martinez. BTC Price Bitcoin has been moving sideways over the last few days as its price still floats around the $63,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin (BTC) On Track For Strongest September Performance, Is $90,000 Next?

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has led the market recovery with its surge to the $63,000 mark. Following the recent developments, the flagship cryptocurrencys performance has seen an 8% weekly surge, driving BTC to one of its best September performances since its creation. Related Reading: Polygon (MATIC) To Come back From The Dead As Ascending Triangle Appears Bitcoin Registers Sixth Green Daily Candle During the first week of the month, Bitcoin saw its price struggle to keep above the $55,000 mark, plummeting to the $52,000 support zone and raising investors alarms. The rest of the sector followed BTCs lead, dropping 12% to a market capitalization of $1.81 trillion earlier this month. Since then, the market has seen a significant boost, mostly fueled by the US Federal Reserves (Fed) rate cut. Following the Feds announcement, the sector recovered 5%, continuing its ascending trajectory throughout the weekend. Due to the positive market sentiment, crypto investment products ended the week with $321 million in inflows, the second weekly positive net flows in a row. The inflows were led by Bitcoin-based products, which registered $284 million last week, according to the CoinShares report. BTC, propelled also by Kamala Harris recent acknowledgment of the crypto industry, recovered 20% from the monthly lows of September 6. The rebound pushed the cryptocurrencys price toward the $64,000 resistance level, which was last held a month ago. After failing to reclaim the key resistance level, Bitcoins price has been hovering between the $63,000-$63,900 range throughout Monday morning, registering six green daily candles since September 17. Will BTC See Four Green Months In A Row? BTCs recent price action has translated into green numbers in the month-to-date (MTD) timeframe, making September a green month for the cryptocurrency. Coinglass data reveals that the flagship crypto displays a 7.94% return MTD. This performance was noted by some market watchers, who suggest that Bitcoin is on its way to registering its best September so far. In an X post, Crypto Jelle highlighted that BTC is currently on track for the strongest September performance in its history after its current MTD return surpassed that of September 2016. To the analyst, the flagship cryptocurrency is preparing for a promising performance next quarter. Jelle also pointed out that BTC has only closed September with green numbers three times. However, the times this has happened, the cryptocurrencys monthly returns have closed in the green for four months straight. This suggests that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a massive bull run for Q4. Close this month in the green, and the odds are high October, November and December will close green as well. He pointed out that this week will be decision time for the flagship cryptocurrency, as a higher high is within an arms reach. A push above the $65,000 resistance level would flip the narrative and see BTC moving to levels not seen since early August. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Reach $108,000 To $155,000 By 2024 End, Analyst Reveals Why The cryptocurrencys chart displays a massive descending broadening wedge, which has the potential to hit $90,000 after a breakout. Ultimately, the analyst considers that Bitcoin wont trade within this pattern for much longer. As of this writing, the flagship trades at $63,700, a 1.7% and 10% surge in the daily and weekly timeframes. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Could Reach $108,000 To $155,000 By 2024 End, Analyst Reveals Why

An analyst has explained why Bitcoin could end the year 2024 inside the $108,000 to $155,000 range if history repeats for the asset. Bitcoin Performance Has Been Similar To Last Two Cycles So Far In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten has discussed about the BTC price performance from the cycle low chart for the last couple of cycles. As its name suggests, this chart captures the price trend between successive cyclical lows. For the latest cycle, the start-point is naturally the bottom that was observed shortly following the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX back in late 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hype Remains Low Even After $63,000 Surge: Green Sign For Rally? Below is the chart shared by Van Straten, which shows how this most recent cycle has stacked against the last two so far: As is visible, the asset’s recent price performance has been remarkably similar to that witnessed in the past two cycles at the same stage. “Out of all the graphs, TA etc, Bitcoin from the cycle low continues to be the most valid,” notes the analyst. Given the similarity so far, it’s possible that the coin’s trajectory in the current cycle may continue to mimic that of the last two. Van Straten has pointed out that both these cycles finished September higher. Not just that, this is also the point at which the two began a long-lasting surge that culminated into the bull run highs. Thus, it’s possible that Bitcoin may also surge from here, if the current cycle continues to follow the last two. “If BTC were to finish EOY between the two previous cycles, which it has done for most of the current cycle, we would be looking at 108k-155k,” explains the analyst. From the latest Bitcoin price, a rally to the lower end of this range, $108,000, would mean an increase of around 70%, while that to the $155,000 upper level would suggest growth of more than 144%. Related Reading: These Altcoins Are Seeing High Whale Interest After Fed Rate Cut As always with patterns that depend on history, though, it’s not necessary that BTC would show a rally in this range to end the year. Nonetheless, the analyst says, “if we don’t get a recession, this is entirely possible.” In some other news, as market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has pointed out in an X post, Tether’s stablecoin, USDT, has reached a new high in its supply recently. As displayed in the above graph, the the USDT market cap has witnessed some sharp growth recently. With the metric’s value now nearly at $120 billion, Tether’s token has left the other stablecoins way behind. The inflows into the stablecoin can actually be relevant to Bitcoin, as capital from USDT generally tends to find its way into the original cryptocurrency. Thus, the growth to a new record suggests the investors potentially have more dry powder available to buy BTC with than ever before. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone stale after its recent recovery as its price is still trading around the $63,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Indicator Signals Shift To Bullish Territory Can BTC Break Past $65,000?

Bitcoin has experienced a significant price surge since Tuesday, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 50 bps interest rate cut. This move pushed BTC past the critical $62,000 mark, a psychological level that has become a turning point for investor sentiment. With Bitcoin now testing local supply, market participants are closely watching for further upside potential. Related Reading: Ripple Whales Accumulate Over 380 Million XRP in Just 10 Days: Is A Breakout Near? As the price continues to push higher, analysts are pointing to crucial data indicating a potential shift in Bitcoin’s trend after months of downtrend price action. Glassnode metrics reveal a notable trend change, suggesting BTC may be entering bullish territory once again. This resurgence is drawing increased attention from both retail and institutional investors as they evaluate whether Bitcoins rally has staying power or if the market will face resistance at higher levels. With renewed momentum, the coming days will be critical in determining if Bitcoin can sustain this upward trajectory and fully break out of its previous bearish phase. Bitcoin Signals A Bullish Return  Bitcoin investors have seen sentiment shift dramatically from fearful to hopeful in just a few days. Following the Federal Reserves rate cut announcement on Wednesday, Bitcoin surged over 8%, breaking critical levels and testing local supply. This sudden price action has sparked renewed optimism in the broader crypto market, giving investors hope for a fresh start after months of bearish price movement. Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has shared valuable insights on X, drawing attention to key data from Glassnode that suggests a significant shift in Bitcoins price trend. Specifically, Ali highlights the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which tracks the difference between BTCs market price and its actual value. The MVRV ratio, which had been in a downtrend since April, is now rising, signaling that Bitcoin may be regaining strength. Ali notes that the MVRV is a critical indicator for assessing momentum, and the current upward trend hints at a potential return to bullish territory. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts Dogecoin Will Surge 1,000% Past ATH Price Targets Revealed The analyst further explains that if the MVRV can close above its 90-day moving average, it would confirm a stronger bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Given the aggressive price surge and the increasing demand reflected in recent price action, this scenario seems increasingly likely. Investors are now watching closely, as Bitcoins next moves could mark the beginning of a new bull phase. Technical Levels To Watch Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $63,024 after days of consistent “only up” price action since hitting local lows. The price recently broke above the daily 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,350 and is now testing the critical daily 200 moving average (MA) at $63,954.  This daily 200 MA is a key long-term indicator, signaling overall market strength. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level as support, it would likely trigger a significant price surge, bolstering the bullish outlook. Related Reading: XRP The Safest Investment To Make 100% ROI Former Asset Manager Shares Price Targets For bulls to maintain momentum, the next target would be around this critical level, with a potential push toward $65,000, a price last tested in late August. However, should BTC fail to hold above $60,000 in the coming days, investors may see a retracement to lower demand levels. The ability to stay above key support zones will determine the next phase of price action. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Crypto Shorts Suffer $147 Million Squeeze As Bitcoin Returns Above $63,000

Data shows the cryptocurrency sector as a whole has witnessed a high amount of liquidations following the volatility Bitcoin and others have gone through. Bitcoin Has Recovered Back Above The $63,000 Level Following the news of the US Federal Reserve cutting back on interest rates, Bitcoin has responded positively, with its price breaking above the [...]

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Bitcoin Surges Above $57,000, But Investors Still Shorting: Fuel For More Rise?

Data shows derivatives exchange users are still shorting Bitcoin after the recovery that the cryptocurrency has enjoyed beyond the $57,000 mark. Bitcoin Funding Rate Is Still Negative On Major Exchanges According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, investors have been shorting BTC for the last few days. The indicator of interest here is the [...]

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Bitcoin price eyes last dip before October breakout: Analysts

Bitcoin analysts are eying an October breakout, despite the current market slump, partly caused by continuous negative outflows from the US Bitcoin ETFs.

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5 Bearish and 4 Bullish Factors for Bitcoin (BTC) in September

Bitcoin has mostly kept its footing around $60,000 since March, although bulls have failed to capture new ground. What does September hold for BTC?

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This Is How Bitcoin (BTC) Could Resume its Bull Run and Chart New ATH

Regulatory develoments, market sentiment, and increased adoption are among the listed factors.

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Bitcoin Breaks $64,000, But This Pattern Could Mean Bull Run Isnt Safe

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Profit indicator has been forming a pattern recently that could put the bull run into jeopardy. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Has Seen Multiple Dips Into “Transition” Zone Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the recent “Supply in Profit” trend could suggest a potential entry into [...]

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Bitcoin Analyst Expects Bulls To Break $74,000 Within Two Months, History Favors BTC In Q4 2024

The rejection of lower prices after the climactic drop in early August assuaged trades. Despite the welcomed recovery, Bitcoin bulls are yet to build on the momentum and break above the local resistance levels. Even so, traders are optimistic, expecting buyers to take charge and resume the uptrend set in motion in Q1 2024. In their forecasts, more analysts think any breakout above $72,000 and July highs could spark a wave of demand that may see Bitcoin record fresh all-time highs above $73,800. Bitcoin Breaking To All-Time Highs Will Take Time Taking to X, one trader, pointing to Bitcoin’s historical price cycles, is convinced that there are two more phases to go before the coin breaks an all-time high and registers fresh all-time highs. In the past, all cycles tops–from the RSI Bollinger Band % Phases indicator, the analyst continued, tend to print out on the fifth move. So far, only three of these five cycles have been completed. Related Reading: Algorand Achieves New Record With 2 Billion Transactions, ALGO Price Jumps 14% Judging from the current state of price action, another analyst, commenting on this preview believes Bitcoin bulls may not have the momentum to break above $73,800 and sustain this level on the first attempt. Instead, in the next two months or so, between September and October, the all-time high will be conquered. However, these gains will be extended with the coin printing new all-time highs in early January 2025. This forecast will align with the Bitcoin historical 4-year cycle. Will Bitcoin Find Favor In Q4 2024? As traders chip in, making predictions, another analyst, pointing to price data, notes that it has been 162 days since Bitcoin broke November 2021 highs and printed fresh all-time highs. The previous cycle only required 209 and 188 days to print fresh all-time highs. Now that history favors Bitcoin in every last cycle of the year, the analyst expects prices to expand rapidly in the last three months. Related Reading: Cardano Price Poised To Hit $2.88, Following Solanas Fractal: Crypto Analyst As of August 23, bulls are back in the equation, according to the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator. After fluctuating since early August, the signal is back to blue, pointing to interest, a net positive. Overall, Bitcoin remains within a narrow range. Bulls must decisively push prices higher, reversing all losses of early August. However, any drop below $50,000 would trigger a sell-off to new H2 2024 lows. Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin parabolic rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data

Q4 could be a blockbuster moment for Bitcoins price as a multi-year historical price trend holds up.

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Bitcoin Still At Risk Of Further Correction, CryptoQuant Head Says

The Head of Research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why Bitcoin may be at risk of seeing a further drawdown. Bitcoin Is Still On Verge Of Bear Market In This Indicator In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. The “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” from CryptoQuant is an indicator based on the P&L Index. The P&L Index combines a few popular BTC metrics related to profit and loss, so it sums up the market balance in one value. This indicator can ascertain whether the asset is going through a bullish or bearish period by comparing it against its 365-day moving average (MA). Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? When the cryptocurrency breaks above its 365-day MA, it can be assumed to be inside a bull market. Similarly, falling under this MA implies a transition toward a bear market. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the actual metric of focus here, exists to make this pattern easier to follow; it keeps track of the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator over the past couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator had reached extreme values during the price all-time high (ATH) earlier in the year (colored in red). At these levels, the P&L Index has quite the gap over its 365-day MA, so the cryptocurrency’s bull rally has become overheated. The graph shows that the metric also gave this signal on a few other occasions during the past two years, and each time, the asset’s price reached the top. However, these previous tops weren’t enough to hold the market back in the long term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator continued to maintain inside the bull territory (shaded in orange), where the P&L Index is above its 365-day MA. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom However, bull market momentum has finally shown signs of running out, with the indicator even briefly plunging into the bear territory (light blue) during the recent price crash. While the metric has recovered back into the bull region with the surge that BTC’s price has observed, it’s still very close to the neutral mark, meaning it can potentially sink back into the bearish zone shortly. Based on this trend, Moreno notes that BTC could still risk seeing a further correction. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall recently, as its price is still trading around the $58,500 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Key Bitcoin bull signal flashes for first time in nearly 2 years, hinting at 2x price surge

The Bitcoin price could increase by over two-fold based on a key bull signal historically correlated with price rallies.

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Bitcoin And Altcoin Bull Run Will Return, Arthur Hayes Reveals Timeline

In a new essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has outlined a bullish future for Bitcoin and altcoins. His analysis, focused on the interplay between government liquidity operations and asset prices, suggests a looming bull market in the crypto space, driven by strategic fiscal maneuvers by the US Treasury. When Will The Bitcoin Bull Run Return? Hayes compares the quality of water in brewing coffee to the liquidity in financial markets, illustrating that just as the quality of water is crucial for making a good cup of coffee, liquidity is essential for the health and movement of financial markets. Hayes pointed out that many investors underestimate the impact of liquidity and often focus narrowly on more visible factors like technological advancements or regulatory changes. Hayes explains the concept of “fiscal dominance,” a situation where the government’s need to finance itself supersedes all other economic considerations, including the control of inflation. He specifically critiques the current policies under US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, whose tactics, according to Hayes, focus on generating nominal economic growth regardless of the inflationary outcomes. Related Reading: BTCs Next Objective? Analyst Eyes Crucial $70,000 Resistance Zone For Bitcoin “During a period of fiscal dominance, the necessity to fund the state overrides any concerns the central bank may have about inflation,” Hayes explains. He details how this shift impacts liquidity, stating, “That means bank credit and, by extension, nominal GDP growth must be sustained at high levels even if it results in persistently higher than target inflation.” Drawing a direct connection between Treasury actions and crypto market movements, Hayes highlighted the correlation between the issuance of Treasury bills (T-bills) and Bitcoin price movements. He noted that when the Treasury increases T-bill issuance, it effectively shifts liquidity from instruments like the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) into more active uses, which historically corresponds with increases in Bitcoin prices. As the RRP (white) fell from its high, Bitcoin (gold) pumped off the lows. As you can see, its a very tight relationship. As money leaves the Feds balance sheet, it adds liquidity, which causes […] Therefore, taking Bad Gurl Yellens word, we know that $301bn of T-bills will be net issued between now and year-end. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly retrace the dump caused by the yen strengthening. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000″ Hayes speculates. When Altcoin Season? Therefore, Hayes advises crypto traders to pay close attention to fiscal and monetary policies, especially the actions of the US Treasury, as these are often precursors to significant market movements. Monitoring T-bill issuance and Treasury maneuvers can provide crypto investors with clues about upcoming shifts in market liquidity and potential price movements, according to Hayes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Again Show Extreme Fear As BTC Slips To $59,000 Shifting focus to the broader crypto market, Hayes also discusses the potential for an ‘alt szn’ or altcoin season, which he predicts will follow a rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. “Shitcoins are higher beta Bitcoin crypto plays. But during this cycle, Bitcoin and now Ether have structural bids in the form of net inflows into US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETF). While Bitcoin and Ether have corrected since April, they escaped the carnage experienced in the shitcoin markets. Commenting on the potential of a full blown altcoin season like in previous cycles, Hayes assures that the time will come. However, altcoin season will only return after Bitcoin and Ether decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. He adds, the combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree. Interestingly, Hayes plans to capitalize on the US elections. He expects that the crypto bull run will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory in September. The US election occurs in early November. Yellen will be at peak manipulation in October. There will be no better time for liquidity this year. Therefore, I shall sell into strength. I will not liquidate my entire crypto portfolio but take profits in my more speculative momentum trades, he revealed. Hayes further anticipates a more substantial market adjustment post US election and the US debt ceiling resolutions, “Once the US debt ceiling charade is over, liquidity will gush from the Treasury and possibly the Fed to get markets back on track. Then, the bull market will begin for realz. $1 million Bitcoin is still my base case.” At press time, BTC traded at $58,783. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Now Forming Pattern That Last Led To It Blasting Off

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is forming a pattern in its Total Amount of Holders, which last proved bullish for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Has Seen A Fall In Its Total Number of Holders Recently According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, BTC investors have been liquidating their wallets amid the recent bearish wave in [...]

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Bitcoin Bull Cycle Likely To Go On Till Mid-2025: CryptoQuant CEO

The CEO and founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how this Bitcoin bull cycle could probably last till mid-2025. Profit-Taking From Old Bitcoin Whales Lasted For 18 Months In Previous Cycles In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a pattern that old whales have followed in terms of profit-taking during the past cycles. “Old whales take profits during bull markets,” notes Young Ju. “Their selling brings new capital into accumulation addresses, raising realized prices.” Accumulation Addresses refer to the Bitcoin wallets that have no history of selling. These addresses also have a few other conditions, such as they must have at least two deposits and shouldn’t be connected to miners or centralized exchanges. They should also carry a balance of at least 10 BTC, and their last transaction should have been within the past seven years. Related Reading: Shiba Inu, XRP Forming Bullish Divergence, Analytics Firm Reveals The Accumulation Addresses basically reflect the perennial HODLers of the market, who only buy more and never sell. During bull markets, as old whales break their silence to harvest their profits, demand from these HODLers absorbs the selling. To display this trend, the CryptoQuant CEO has made use of the “Realized Price” metric, which keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor belonging to this cohort. When the value of this indicator is above the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the cohort as a whole is in a state of unrealized loss right now. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value implies these diamond hands are currently carrying profits. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for the Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses over the past decade: As shown in the above graph, the Realized Price for this cohort observed a rise during the last two Bitcoin bull runs. This would suggest that these HODLers were buying as prices were going up, thus raising their average cost basis. This accumulation likely corresponded to profit-taking from other entities in the market. As Young Ju has pointed out, this profit-taking spree lasted for about 18 months in these past cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $64,000: Will This Historical Support Hold? From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has once again started showing an uptrend with the price rally this year. This would suggest that the Accumulation Addresses are back to absorbing profit-taking from old whales. So far, this rise has lasted for around four months, which means that there could still be around another fourteen months of it left, if the last two cycles are anything to go by. Based on this, the analyst thinks this latest Bitcoin bull cycle could end up running into mid-2025. BTC Price Bitcoin has edged close to the $70,000 level during the past day after observing a surge of around 3%. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Nansen Says Bitcoin Investors Should Become Risk-On, Heres Why

Nansens analysts insist that investors should take more risks and not resist current all-green signals and narratives.

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Bitcoin forming massive bullish wedge pattern as trader eyes $85K

Bitcoins bullish pattern on the chart is signaling to crypto traders a potential 25% price increase from its current level.

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Bitcoin Bull Run Tied To Economic Echoes Of The 1930s-1970: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has recently offered a comprehensive analysis in his latest essay, “Zoom Out,” drawing compelling parallels between the economic upheavals of the 1930s-1970s and today’s financial landscape, specifically focusing on the implications for the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. His in-depth examination suggests that historical economic patterns, when properly understood, can provide a blueprint for understanding the potential revival of the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. Understanding Financial Cycles Hayes begins his analysis by exploring the major economic cycles starting from the Great Depression, through the mid-20th century economic booms, and into the stagnant 1970s. He categorizes these transformations into what he terms “Local” and “Global” cycles, central to understanding the broader macroeconomic forces at play. Local Cycles are characterized by intense national focus where economic protectionism and financial repression are prevalent. These cycles often arise from governmental responses to severe economic crises that prioritize national recovery over global cooperation, typically leading to inflationary outcomes due to the devaluation of fiat currencies and increased government spending. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Blasts Past $63,000: Top 3 Reasons Global Cycles, in contrast, are marked by periods of economic liberalization, where global trade and investment are encouraged, often leading to deflationary pressures due to increased competition and efficiency in global markets. Hayes carefully examines each cycle’s impact on asset classes, noting that during Local cycles, non-fiat assets like gold have historically performed well due to their nature as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. Hayes draws a direct parallel between the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 and the economic environment of the 1930s. Just as the economic crises of the early 20th century led to transformative monetary policies, the financial crash of 2008 and subsequent quantitative easing set the stage for the introduction of Bitcoin. Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Will Resume Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s emergence during what he identifies as a renewed Local cycle, characterized by the global recession and significant central bank interventions, mirrors past periods where traditional financial systems were under stress, and alternative assets like gold rose to prominence. Expanding on the analogy between gold in the 1930s and Bitcoin today, Hayes elucidates how gold served as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and rampant inflation. He posits that Bitcoin, with its decentralized and state-independent nature, is well-suited to serve a similar purpose in today’s volatile economic climate. Related Reading: Mt. Goxs Bitcoin Dump: How Will The $9 Billion Sell-Off Affect BTCs Price? “Bitcoin operates outside the traditional state systems, and its value proposition becomes particularly evident in times of inflation and financial repression,” Hayes notes. This feature of Bitcoin, he argues, makes it an indispensable asset for those seeking to preserve wealth amidst currency devaluation and fiscal instability. Hayes points out the significant surge in the US budget deficit, projected to reach $1.915 trillion in fiscal 2024, as a modern indicator that parallels the fiscal expansions of past Local cycles. This deficit, significantly higher than in previous years, marking the highest level outside the COVID-19 era, is attributed to increased government spending akin to historical periods of government-induced economic stimuli. Hayes uses these fiscal indicators to suggest that just as past Local cycles led to increased valuation for non-state assets, the current fiscal and monetary policies are likely to enhance the appeal and value of Bitcoin. “Why am I confident that Bitcoin will regain its mojo? Why am I confident that we are in the midst of a new mega-local, nation-state first, inflationary cycle?” Hayes asks rhetorically in his essay. He believes that the same dynamics that drove the value of assets like gold during past economic upheavals are now aligning to bolster the value of Bitcoin. He concludes, I believe fiscal and monetary conditions are loose and will continue to be loose, and therefore, hodling crypto is the best way to preserve wealth. I am confident that today will rhyme with the 1930s to 1970s, and that means, given I can still freely move from fiat to crypto, I should do so because debasement through the expansion and centralisation of credit allocation through the banking system is coming. At press time, BTC traded at $62,649. Featured image from YouTube / What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com

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