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An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could witness a drop to the $40,600 level based on a pattern forming in its 2-month price chart. Bitcoin Has Seen A TD Sequential Sell Signal On Its 2-Month Price In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about a Tom Demark (TD) Sequential signal that [...]
The post Bitcoin Could Drop To $40,600 If This Happens, Crypto Analyst Says appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Bitcoin must hold above the $50,000 mark until the Sept. 18 Federal Reserve meeting to avoid more downside.
The popular AI chatbot warned that BTC could slump to the mid-$40,000 range.
The Head of Research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why Bitcoin may be at risk of seeing a further drawdown. Bitcoin Is Still On Verge Of Bear Market In This Indicator In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. The “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” from CryptoQuant is an indicator based on the P&L Index. The P&L Index combines a few popular BTC metrics related to profit and loss, so it sums up the market balance in one value. This indicator can ascertain whether the asset is going through a bullish or bearish period by comparing it against its 365-day moving average (MA). Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? When the cryptocurrency breaks above its 365-day MA, it can be assumed to be inside a bull market. Similarly, falling under this MA implies a transition toward a bear market. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the actual metric of focus here, exists to make this pattern easier to follow; it keeps track of the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator over the past couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator had reached extreme values during the price all-time high (ATH) earlier in the year (colored in red). At these levels, the P&L Index has quite the gap over its 365-day MA, so the cryptocurrency’s bull rally has become overheated. The graph shows that the metric also gave this signal on a few other occasions during the past two years, and each time, the asset’s price reached the top. However, these previous tops weren’t enough to hold the market back in the long term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator continued to maintain inside the bull territory (shaded in orange), where the P&L Index is above its 365-day MA. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom However, bull market momentum has finally shown signs of running out, with the indicator even briefly plunging into the bear territory (light blue) during the recent price crash. While the metric has recovered back into the bull region with the surge that BTC’s price has observed, it’s still very close to the neutral mark, meaning it can potentially sink back into the bearish zone shortly. Based on this trend, Moreno notes that BTC could still risk seeing a further correction. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall recently, as its price is still trading around the $58,500 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
An on-chain analyst has explained signals in several metrics to see if Bitcoin is in a bearish phase. These Bitcoin Indicators Could Be To Follow For Bear Market Signals In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate replied to a user asking about an on-chain metric indicating when it’s time to turn bearish on cryptocurrency. Checkmate has shared two indicators: the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Momentum and the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum. “Short-Term Holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, meaning that both of these metrics are only for the recent buyers in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? First, the “Realized Profit/Loss Momentum” measures, as its name suggests, the momentum in the ratio of the profit and loss that the STHs are realizing through their selling. Below is the chart for the indicator posted by the analyst. According to the analyst, it is time to be bearish when the oscillator on the bottom of this chart turns red (corresponding to negative momentum in the STH Realized Profit/Loss). The graph shows that this oscillator assumed negative values soon after the price set its new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained in the region. And indeed, while the indicator has seen these values, Bitcoin has been going through a rough phase. The STH MVRV Ratio Momentum’s second indicator works similarly and keeps track of the distance between the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for this cohort and its 155-day moving average (MA). The MVRV Ratio is a popular indicator that tells us how the value held by the investors (the market cap) compares against what they used to purchase their coins (the Realized Cap). In other words, the metric provides information about the unrealized profit/loss of the holders. Thus, whereas the Realized Profit/Loss keeps track of the net profit/loss the investors are harvesting through their selling, this metric tells us about the profit/loss they have yet to take. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom Here is the data for the momentum indicator for the MVRV Ratio specifically for the STHs: According to the analyst, just like with the first indicator, this one also gives a bearish signal when the momentum turns red. As the chart shows, the STH MVRV Ratio has been under its 155-day MA for the same period as the bearish momentum in the Realized Profit/Loss, thus providing confluence to the signal. BTC Price Bitcoin had pushed towards $62,000 earlier in the week, but the asset has since slipped up as it’s now back at $57,800. Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whale entities have sold approximately $588 million in the cryptocurrency during the past week. Bitcoin Whales Have Made Large Selling Moves Recently As pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, the BTC whales have sold around 10,000 BTC over the last seven days. The indicator of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution” from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, which tells us about the total amount of Bitcoin that a given wallet group currently holds. Related Reading: Only 66% Of Ethereum Holders In Profit Despite 21% Price Jump The addresses or investors are divided into these cohorts based on the number of tokens that they are carrying in their balance right now. A holder with 5 BTC, for instance, is put inside the 1 to 10 coins group. In the context of the current topic, the whale cohort is of interest, which typically includes the addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins. At the current exchange rate, this range converts to $58.8 million at the lower end and $588 million at the upper one. Clearly, the investors belonging to the group would be among the largest in the market, so the cohort can be considered to have some influence. As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Supply Distribution for this Bitcoin group over the past few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the whales has observed a significant decline recently. More specifically, the investors belonging to the cohort have removed a combined 10,000 BTC from their wallets during this selloff, worth about $588 million right now. From the chart, it’s visible that the sharpest selling came during the crash that BTC saw earlier, but these whales have also offloaded significant amounts in the recovery rally that has occurred over the last few days. So far, the Supply Distribution of the cohort has shown no signs of a reversal, so it’s possible that the whales are still in net selling mode. Naturally, this could slow down the asset’s recovery efforts. Nothing is set in stone, though, so the indicator could be used to monitor the coming days to see which direction these humongous investors really take. A net accumulation spree would suggest a renewal of confidence among the large hands and could pave the way for a further rise in the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Again Show Extreme Fear As BTC Slips To $59,000 In some other news, BTC has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern recently and is closing in on its apex, as the analyst has explained in another X post. “Bitcoin is showing a symmetrical triangle on the lower time frames,” notes Martinez. “A sustained close outside the $59,000 – $59,530 range could trigger a 4.80% move for BTC.” BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled to put together bullish momentum in the last couple of days as its price has slumped to $58,800. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, charts from TradingView.com
Data shows the cryptocurrency derivatives market has registered significant liquidations after the Bitcoin rally above the $63,000 mark. Bitcoin Rally Has Resulted In Short Liquidations On Derivatives Market According to data from CoinGlass, the latest volatility in the cryptocurrency market has led to large liquidations on the derivatives side. “Liquidation” here naturally refers to the process that any open contract undergoes where its platform forcibly closes it off after it has amassed losses of a certain degree. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Stalls As HODLers Apply Selling Pressure The table below shows how the derivatives liquidations have looked during the last 24 hours: It would appear that the cryptocurrency derivatives market has registered total liquidations of $126 million in the past day. Out of these, almost $101 million of the contracts were short ones. This figure is equivalent to more than 80% of the total, implying that these investors betting on a bearish outcome for the market were the most heavily affected by the latest volatility. This naturally makes sense, as assets across the sector have seen green returns in this window, led by Bitcoin’s rally. A mass liquidation event like this latest one is popularly called a “squeeze“, and as shorts were the side that contributed to a majority of these liquidations, the squeeze would be known as a “short squeeze.” During a squeeze, liquidations end up feeding further into the price move that caused them, thus unleashing a cascade of further liquidations. As such, the sharp price surge in the past day would in part be fueled by the short squeeze. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Forced Weak Hands Into Largest Loss-Taking Since 2022 Lows: Report As for the breakdown of this latest squeeze for the various symbols, it would seem like Bitcoin has come out on top like usual with around $45 million in liquidations. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have made up the rest of the top three with $24 million and $8 million in liquidations, respectively. Interestingly, while most of the sector has seen the dominance of short liquidations, XRP (XRP) on fourth has seen longs edge out instead. This may be down to the fact that the coin has overall only moved sideways while the rest have rallied. BTC Has Managed To Reclaim The $62,000 Support Level With the latest rally, Bitcoin has been able to make some significant recovery, with its price even briefly surging above the $63,000 level earlier in the day. The chart below shows what the coin’s surge has looked like: According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin is now floating above the significant on-chain support level of $62,000. “While resistance is strong above, enough bullish momentum can prevent selling pressure,” notes the analytics firm. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
A new report from Glassnode has revealed that the Bitcoin short-term holders took part in the largest loss-taking event since 2022 in the recent crash. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Realized Huge Losses Recently According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, less than 1% of trading days in the cryptocurrency’s history have seen the short-term holders taking higher losses than during the latest event. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort makes up one of the two main market divisions based on holding time, with the other group being called the “long-term holders” (LTHs). Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs reflect the stubborn side of the market, which can weather through crashes and rallies, while the STHs include the weak hands that easily react to FUD or FOMO. Related Reading: Chainlink Traders Capitulate After 10% Plunge: Bottom Here? Given this fact, it’s not unexpected that this latter cohort has again shown a strong reaction to the recent volatility in the Bitcoin price. And since it’s been a crash, the STHs have been panic selling at a loss. The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss specifically for the STHs over the past few years: The Realized Loss here is an indicator that keeps track of the total loss the STHs realize through their selling. Also, note that the metric is “entity-adjusted,” meaning that the metric includes the data for entities instead of addresses. An entity refers to a cluster of addresses that Glassnode has determined to belong to the same investor through its analysis. Transactions made between the wallets of the same investor would naturally not correspond to any real “loss-taking,” so excluding them from the data makes sense. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Loss registered a spike during the latest market downturn, implying that these investors made large transactions at a loss. At the height of this capitulation event, the indicator’s value hit $595 million, the largest loss-taking the cohort has shown since the FTX collapse that led to the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Now Forming Pattern That Last Led To It Blasting Off “Furthermore, only 52 out of 5655 trading days (< 1%) have recorded a larger daily loss value, highlighting the severity of this correction in dollar terms,” reads the report. From the chart, it would appear that large spikes in the metric have come around at least local bottoms in the price, so this loss-taking event may have also formed another bottom for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $58,800, up 3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
According to this metric, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed Shiba Inu has been underbought recently, while Bitcoin is overbought. MVRV Z-Score Suggests Shiba Inu Has Been Undervalued Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed how some of the top cryptocurrencies are looking like right now on their MVRV Z-Score. The “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) refers to a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap and realized cap for any given asset. The realized cap here is a capitalization model that calculates the total valuation of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which said coin was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Surges 18%, But Watch Out For Crowd FOMO As the previous transaction of any coin was the last time it changed hands, the price at its time would denote its cost basis. Thus, the realized cap is a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in the circulating supply. Put another way, this model measures the total capital the investors used to purchase the asset’s supply. The market cap, in contrast, keeps track of the value these investors hold. As such, the MVRV, which compares these two metrics, tells us about the profit/loss situation of the investors as a whole. In the context of the current topic, the actual metric of interest is the “MVRV Z-score.” This indicator takes the difference between the market cap and the realized cap and divides it by the standard deviation of the market cap over the asset’s entire history. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in this indicator for various coins in the sector: Based on the MVRV Z-Score, Santiment has defined three zones that relate to how far from its fair value the asset is. The chart shows that Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Uniswap (UNI) have had the indicator at -1.55 and -1.96 recently, putting these assets inside the ‘underbought’ territory. At these MVRV Z-Score values, the market cap is significantly lesser than the realized cap, meaning investors are widely lost. Generally, profit holders are a more likely source of selling pressure in the market, so when there are few of them left, price corrections can become less probable. Related Reading: Retail Losing Interest In Bitcoin? Volume Plunges 30% This is why assets are considered undervalued when the indicator drops below the -1 level for them. Due to a similar reasoning, values above 1 correlate to the coin being overvalued. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Toncoin (TON) have recently been inside this latter territory, suggesting that their prices could be in danger of seeing bearish action. Shiba Inu and Uniswap, on the other hand, could be better set up for a price surge. SHIB Price At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading around $0.0000171, up 2% over the past week. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021. Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been [...]
The post Bitcoin Slips Under $64,000: Heres Where The Next Support Is appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Data shows that traders on social media have been calling to buy during the latest Bitcoin dip below $66,000, a sign that FOMO is active in the market. Bitcoin Investors Are Displaying FOMO After The Recent Decline As the analytics firm Santiment pointed out in a new post on X, the recent drawdown in the [...]
The post Bitcoin FOMO: Social Media Users Calling To Buy Sub-$66,000 Dip appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross still has a high value, a sign that may be bearish for BTC. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Still Near Historical Top Zone In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the recent trend in the NVT Golden Cross for BTC and its [...]
The post Bitcoin Not Out Of Danger Yet, NVT Golden Cross Warns appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Bitcoins price just lost a major on-chain support level, though history suggests the asset was due for a correction.
Despite Bitcoin’s 13% drop in the past week, which saw it break below the psychological $60,000 level and drop 20% from its all-time highs, one analyst on X remains resolute. Drawing from the weekly chart, the trader maintains a bullish outlook, saying the coin will shake off weakness in the coming session. This aligns with bulls for the better part of Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Bitcoin Is Falling, Losses $60,000 Bitcoin is under intense liquidation pressure, struggling against the deluge of sellers. Earlier today, BTC broke below $60,000, melting below April 2024 lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dips Below $57,000: 4 Key Reasons This dump confirmed sellers of April 13, signaling a possible start of a bear formation that may see BTC lose ground, peeling back February and March 2024 gains. Nonetheless, the analyst maintains that the uptrend will remain as long as Bitcoin stays above the $49,000 to $52,000 support zone, soaking up all selling pressure. This assessment, based on candlestick arrangement, can serve as a reassurance to BTC holders. The trader maintains that despite the sell-off, panic is unwarranted at this point. Referring to the Elliott Wave Principle, a technical analysis indicator, the analyst points out that the coin is simply pausing. For those with a more aggressive trading strategy, the dip, ideally towards the above support zone, could present an opportunity to buy on dips in anticipation of Wave 5. Currently, the analyst notes Bitcoin is in Wave 4, a stage that will take approximately the same time as Wave 2. Then, prices dumped after a brief rally, peaking in May 2023. However, prices rally in Wave 3, pushing prices below $30,000 to fresh all-time highs, peaking at $73,800. The drop from all-time highs to spot rates, looking at the Elliot Wave Theory, could indicate that prices are in Wave 4 before the eventual leg up, ending at Wave 5. What’s Next? Will BTC Breach $100,000 In Wave 5? Even so, when BTC will bottom up remains to be known. As things stand, the analyst said traders should watch two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the 21 and 50 periods. A retest of these dynamic levels could offer support, preparing traders to buy on dips in anticipation of the final Wave 5. Related Reading: Machine Learning Algorithm Predicts Dogecoin Price For May 2024 However, the analyst didn’t lay out the next possible target even from the chart. Still, if Wave 3 is around the same length as Wave 5, Bitcoin has a strong chance to surpass $100,000 after the current volatile price action ends. Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView
Data shows that Bitcoin sentiment has cooled off to neutral from greed following the asset’s latest plunge to the $57,000 level. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Returned To Neutral Levels The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that shows the average sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market. This index estimates sentiment by considering five factors: volatility, trading volume, social media data, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $92,190: Crypto Analyst Reveals Path To ATH Target The metric uses a scale that runs from zero to 100 to represent this average sentiment. All values under 46 suggest that investors are fearful, while those above 54 imply a greedy market. The zone between these two cutoffs naturally corresponds to the territory of neutral mentality. Now, here is what the Bitcoin sentiment looks like right now, according to the Fear & Greed Index: The value of the metric appears to be 54 at the moment | Source: Alternative As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is at a value of 54, implying that investors share a neutral sentiment currently. However, the neutrality is only just, as the metric is right at the boundary of the greed region. This is a significant departure from yesterday’s sentiment: 67. The chart below shows how the indicator’s value has changed recently. The trend in the Fear & Greed Index over the past year | Source: Alternative As the graph shows, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been declining recently. For most of February and March, as well as the first half of April, the indicator was in or near a special zone called extreme greed. The market assumes this sentiment at values above 75. As the asset price struggled recently, the mentality cooled off from this extreme zone and entered the normal greed region. With the latest crash in BTC, the index has seen a sharp plunge, now exiting out of greed altogether. Historically, cryptocurrency has tended to move against the majority’s expectations. The stronger this expectation, the higher the probability of such a contrary move. This expectation is considered the strongest in extreme sentiment zones, as well as extreme fear and greed. As such, major bottoms and tops have often occurred in these territories. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance: Traders Preferring The OG To Dogecoin & Other Altcoins The all-time high (ATH) price last month, which continues to be the top of the rally so far, also occurred alongside extreme values of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. With the sentiment now cooled to neutral, some investors may be watching for a fall into fear. This is natural because a rebound would become more probable the worse the sentiment gets now. BTC Price During Bitcoin’s latest plunge, its price briefly slipped below $57,000 before surging back to $57,300. Looks like the price of the asset has registered a sharp drop over the past two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle, Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. Im not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, he clarified, but Im saying that the probability of it being a top has increased from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a thirdyou know, a 33% chance. Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the models Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoins price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. In the third year of a bull market, you dont want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February and then to be taken out. It doesnt happen often. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. We are now 29 months into the cycle, he said, so its deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously. Although the analyst remains bullish long-termhighlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoptionhe warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. Theres a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy, Loukas noted. We havent seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades that could potentially become a full-blown global recession. In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas view, unrealistic. With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and othersthe institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoinleads me to believe that a full decoupling is probably unrealistic. The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 levela roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough where I would want to redeploy some risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. A big move up and then a subsequent move down is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin. Still, Loukas hasnt ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical super right-translated cycle, in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 windowperhaps around month 41 or 42followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. Id much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, Well, Bitcoins back down to $48K or lower. Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes. At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Hours before the announcement, investors rushed to move their assets to exchanges in preparation for sales due to economic uncertainty.
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin is forming both a death cross and TD sell signal, which may lead to potential dips in these targets. Bitcoin Looking In Trouble As 12-Hour Chart Forms Two Bearish Signals In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed two signals that have recently formed in Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. The first of these is a “death cross,” which occurs when an asset’s short-term simple moving average (SMA) dips below its long-term SMA. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Continue Buying, Now Hold 25.16% Of All Supply Regarding the death cross, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs make up for the short-term and long-term trend lines. Historically, such formations have been considered bearish signals, with the price potentially suffering once the pattern is confirmed. The other signal that has appeared for the cryptocurrency involves the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential. This indicator is popularly used for finding locations of probable tops and bottoms in any asset’s price. The TD Sequential has two phases: the “setup” and “countdown.” The first phase, the setup, is said to be complete once the asset has gone through nine candles of the same polarity. After these nine candles, the price may have reached a likely reversal point. Naturally, if the candles in the setup’s formation were red, then the signal would be a buy one, while if the prevailing trend were bullish, the reversal would be towards the downside. Once the setup is complete, the countdown phase begins. This phase works much like the setup, except that candles are counted up to thirteen instead of nine. After the countdown’s completion, the commodity may be assumed to have reached another potential top/bottom. Now, here is the chart shared by Ali that highlights how signals about both of these technical analysis patterns have been witnessed in the 12-hour price of Bitcoin recently: The two signals that the 12-hour BTC price has formed in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X As is visible in the graph, the 12-hour price of Bitcoin first saw a death cross form with the 50-day SMA moving under the 100-day SMA. Then, it observed the completion of a TD Sequential setup, with the indicator suggesting a reversal to the downward direction. Since this double bearish pattern has appeared, BTC has been heading down, suggesting that these signals may already be in effect. “If BTC falls below $63,300, brace for possible dives to $61,000 or even $59,000,” says the analyst. Related Reading: Newbie Bitcoin Whales Hold 2x As Much As Veterans: Whats Behind This Trend? From the current price of the cryptocurrency, a potential drawdown to the first of these targets would mean a decline of 4.6%, while one to the latter level would suggest a drop of nearly 8%. BTC Price So far, Bitcoin has managed to prevent falls under the $63,300 target listed by the analyst, as it currently floats around $64,000. Looks like the price of the coin has lost its earlier recovery during the past 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock, charts from TradingView.com
Rekt Capital said the closer BTC gets to a 20% fall, the better the bargain-buying opportunity.
On-chain data shows the next major Bitcoin demand zone is around $56,000, a level BTC might end up revisiting if the decline continues. Bitcoin Has Next Major On-Chain Support Around $56,000 According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, BTC’s recent drawdown has meant that it may end up having to rely on the price range around $56,000 for support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Showing Different Behavior From Past Cycles, But Why? In on-chain analysis, a level’s potential as support or resistance is based on the total number of coins that the investors last acquired there. Below is a chart that shows what the various price ranges around the current spot price of the cryptocurrency look like in terms of this cost-basis distribution. The data for the BTC acquisition distribution across the various price levels | Source: IntoTheBlock on X In the graph, the size of the dot represents the amount of Bitcoin that was purchased inside the corresponding price range. It would appear that the $63,000 to $64,890 level is currently thick with investors. To be more particular, 1 million investors acquired 530,000 BTC inside this range. Generally, whenever the asset retests the cost basis of any investor, they may become more likely to make some kind of move, due to the importance the level holds for them. Investors who were in profits just prior to the retest may be willing to make further bets, believing that if this level was profitable in the past it might be so again in the future. Naturally, this buying effect would only be relevant for the market if a large amount of investors acquired coins inside a tight price range. The $63,000 to $64,890 range qualifies for this. The range should have acted as a support point for the coin, but BTC has recently slipped under it, possibly suggesting that this support level may have broken down. As IntoTheBlock has highlighted in the chart, the next major range of potential support is the $55,200 to $57,100 range. Thus, should the current drawdown continue, this may be the next relevant range. “While this doesn’t mean that Bitcoin has to go this low, it is good to keep this range in mind while price is exploring recent lows,” notes the analytics firm. A decline to the average price of this range ($56,000) would mean a drawdown of almost 10% from the current spot value of the coin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds After Nearing Cost Basis Of Short-Term Whales Before this level, though, there is another interesting on-chain level that BTC could end up revisiting. As analyst James Van Straten has pointed out in an X post, the Realized Price (the average cost basis) of the short-term holders is around $58,800 right now. Looks like the value of the metric has been going up since a while now | Source: @jvs_btc on X The short-term holders (STHs) here refer to the investors who bought within the past 155 days. This group’s Realized Price has been at an important level historically during bull runs, as the asset has often found support at it. Breaks under it have, in fact, usually led to bearish transitions in the past. “If we drop below this, I will concede to a bear market similar to May 2021,” says Straten. BTC Price Bitcoin has registered a decline of almost 7% over the past 24 hours and in the process, has lost any recovery it had made earlier. Now, BTC is trading around $62,100. The price of the asset appears to have been going down recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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