Caging the Doge
It’s no secret how powerful and engaging the dogecoin trend has been. People who have held $DOGE since even the beginning of January are now retiring, paying off mortgages and more through the incredible wealth transfer that comes with cryptocurrency.
But what can we expect from $DOGE moving forward? Is now the time to buy and hold “to the moon”? Can $DOGE truly become the “money of the people” as many of the initiated believe?
This article will be wildly unpopular in the degen crypto-community I am sure. I fully expect to be raked over the coals for this, be called a “FUDer” (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and new retail money doesn’t want to hear what I am about to write because they probably just invested in this crypto with their new robinhood account;
$DOGE is a bad investment. Stay away from it.
Here are three reasons why:
Market Cap. $DOGE is now a top 10 cryptocurrency. It’s current M-cap as of this writing is ~50 billion dollars. This means 50 billion dollars have flooded into this useless coin. Top cryptocurrencies by market cap require intensive amounts of monetary energy to continue to move upward. Think of it this way; small (or “micro”) cryptocurrencies have market caps of ~1 million or less. The monetary energy required to double the price of these coins is 1 million dollars, compared to 50 billion dollars with $DOGE. The price of any crypto is a simple math equation: the market cap divided by the circulating supply. If you are looking for quick gains, there are literally thousands of other cryptocurrencies that give you a better shot at this point. $TNDR for example, is a cryptocurrency with a 1 million dollar market cap and deflationary mechanisms built in, which will result in higher prices. For $DOGE, the boat has sailed on people turning a thousand dollars into hundreds of thousands.
Lack of Utility. $DOGE is pointless. It was started as a meme. For some reason, the doge-army believes that this obvious pointlessness makes it the underdog favorite to overcome the massive obstacles it will have for actual adoption. While it is possible the utility of this token can change, anyone who claims it is usable is just shilling the coin to you. As of the time of this writing, for most “big money” players, it is not an investable asset simply due to its lack of utility in the market. It is not a good store of value because of its inflationary nature (10,000 DOGE are minted every minute). Bitcoin is better for that. It is not a good currency for transaction because it is highly volatile (yes, even and especially compared to other cryptocurrencies) and therefore risks you losing your purchasing power. Stablecoins and other utility tokens provide better options. Serious investors and financial giants that are needed to keep moving the price up won’t be attracted to an asset that has no utility and an inflationary supply over time. I am concerned that the majority of retail traders and investors who are new to crypto will be left holding the bags in what is the cryptocurrency version of a ponzi scheme, with all the big players selling their stacks to newcomers while they move into other useful coins. If you want a crypto with utility, just stack Ethereuem.
Inflation on Steroids. 10 million $DOGE are created every day. This means that over a billion dollars worth of $DOGE are made each quarter. That is 2% of the total market cap. In USD terms, the kind of new money that has to enter into $DOGE just to keep the price stable is nearly 8% of its current market cap. An 8% growth rate of new money action is unlikely, especially considering the vast amount of other cryptocurrencies out there and considering the lack of interest from major investors and financial institutions. This inflationary nature makes the momentum needed even to get DOGE to a dollar an astronomical accomplishment. Don’t get me wrong, it is quite possible (and dare I say likely) that $DOGE makes its way to a dollar, giving the old phrase “$DOGE to a 1” fresh relevance. But it is unlikely that $DOGE can sustain this energy for long.
I am truly glad for those who have made great gains with DOGE. But personally, when the hype is over, I am excited to see how the money flows out of $DOGE into the rest of crypto. A rising tide raises all boats. My personal approach is to keep building my positions in other cryptocurrencies, waiting for the liquidity to exit $DOGE and pump coins with low market caps, actual utility and deflationary elements.
In sum, buy DOGE for the meme, not for the money.